Short Take: Of Oil, Deutsche And The Donald
The focal points of the market continue to be oil, the election, and Deutsche Bank (but not necessarily in this order). Oil continues to bounce around on any word relating to discussions of supply constraints that may or may not occur at the upcoming meeting of oil producing nations.
As for the election, the general consensus is that Donald Trump did not score the decisive victory needed to boost his chances and as such, futures markets breathed a sigh of relief after the debate. (Recall that markets never really care who wins, it is uncertainty that drives prices during an election year – and the bottom line is that the possibility of a Trump victory increases uncertainty.)
However, the positive post-debate vibe appears to be fading a bit this morning as traders turn their attention to difficulty at Deutsche Bank. Recall that the bank’s stock hit an all-time low in response to Angela Merkel saying she does not favor a German bailout of Deutsche Bank. And given that traders remain in worry-mode at the present time, this puts the health of the European Banking system in play.
Publishing Note: I am traveling the rest of this week. Thus, reports will be published as my schedule permits.
Current Market Drivers
We strive to identify the driving forces behind the market action on a daily basis. The thinking is that if we can both identify and understand why stocks are doing what they are doing on a short-term basis; we are not likely to be surprised/blind-sided by a big move. Listed below are what we believe to be the driving forces of the current market (Listed in order of importance).
1. The State of Global Central Bank Policies
2. The State of U.S. Economic Growth
3. The State of the Bond Market
4. The State of the U.S. Dollar
Thought For The Day:
You are in charge of how you feel — Unknown
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