Short Take: Add The Consumer To The List

In addition to oil, the difficulties at Deutsche Bank, and the election, we should probably add the state of the economy to the list of near-term focal points here. On the latter topic, the consensus seems to be that the consumer is nervous about, well, pick a topic, really. However, yesterday’s report on Consumer Confidence provided a breath of fresh air.

You see, the Conference Board’s latest measure of the state of the consumer surprised to the upside, hitting the highest level since August 2007. Yep, that’s right, the confidence level of the American consumer is now back to where it was before the credit crisis and the Great Recession. Buried within the report was the fact that confidence levels at the low end of the income distribution rose sharply, reaching its highest level since August 2001.

Another tidbit found in the bowels of the report was the percentage of consumers who plan to buy a washing machine (which can be viewed as a proxy for household formation). This measure hit its highest level since the financial crisis.

So, while the bears have plenty of data points to chew on these days, it is worth noting that the consumer, who is responsible for something on the order of 70% of the U.S. economy, is feeling pretty darn good about things these days. From my seat, this is another big-picture positive that argues for maintaining at least some exposure to the stock market – even during this seasonally sloppy period in the market.

On the remaining three issues traders are currently focused on, oil prices continue to waffle on every word out of oil producing countries (Iran said today it has no interest in limiting supplies at this time – but perhaps discussions can continue at the next OPEC meeting in November).

Next, the stock of Deutsche Bank is bouncing this morning as the chairman says his bank won’t need to raise capital (insert raised eyebrow here as usually such a proclamation means just the opposite).

And finally on the election front, the absence of a surge from the Trump camp continues to sit well with the markets. Again, please understand that I am NOT making any sort of political statement here. This is simply my interpretation of how the markets are viewing the action. Remember, the goal of my oftentimes meandering morning market missive is to identify what IS happening in the market. I try to leave the commentary and prognostications to others!

Disclosures: Modern times demand modern ...

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