Shake Shake Shake: The Shack Shack Metaphor

I was watching the recent action in Shake Shack (SHAK) and to put it bluntly, it has shaken my core beliefs in a rational market. Granted, most of this insanity is due to short covering yet the hype surrounding this fancy "hamburger joint" is shaking up an already jittery market. I half expected Janet Yellen last week to cite Shake Shack as the reason they are going to raise interest rates! 

Shake Shack jumped 30% following last week's better-than-expected earnings report. Then it jumped 8% last Wednesday as it announced the reopening of its Madison Park location in New York (and no, the salt shakers were NOT removed from the tables.)

Then it popped another 8% the next day because it filed an application to trademark the name "chicken shack". No one knows whether they will be opening new stores under that moniker or just adding chicken dishes to their current menu. If so, that should shake things up a bit at Chick-fil-A's corporate offices.

So now you know how to make $200 million in two days. Not bad for a place that makes artery clogging milk shakes (46 grams of fat per serving) and burgers (30 grams of fat per single burger). So much for the millennials' clarion cry for more healthy eating alternatives. Shake Shack clearly flies in the face of that trend. 

And so far it's working. The value of Shake Shack's shares keeps rising as the burger chain announces plans to open more restaurants yet it only plans on opening 10 locations this year. Right now, a single Shake Shack location is now worth nearly $50 million. Compare that to $10 million for a Chipotle (CMG) location and $3 million for a McDonald's (MCD). Shake Shack has only 63 current locations so it's not exactly leaving the competition shaking in their boots just yet.

Still, it's hard to ignore the company's market cap is now $3.42 billion. The company became public January 30, 2015 with an offering price of $21 and now trades above $90. These numbers are hard to shake off because they are symptomatic of a much larger problem we are in right now.

The stock market has been running on empty without a serious 10% correction since 2011.

A market that threatens to be shaken up by greed run amok. And this time it ain't fakin' it.

Add to that an economy further shaken by poor job numbers and an anemic GDP. 

Our personal fortunes shaken out of us by the wealth effect and a real estate market still feeling the effects of the crash.

Our future earnings shaken out of us by a shrinking labor force, and increasing health care costs owing to Obamacare. 

Our land shaken by more hurricanes, earthquakes, tornadoes and our disappearing water supply.  According to Hank Paulson, the number one threat to our country is climate change and the government's inability to shake up our elected officials to act meaningfully. Illinois will soon be an arid state and will no longer be able to grow corn. 

I thought about this the other day as we finally were able to shake off the severity of last winter and finally able to enjoy a warm sunny day. I live in a college town and the first breath of summer starts on Memorial Day, where the town decks itself out in red, white, and blue to honor the men and women that defended us. When we can finally shake off our winter skin, heavy coats and head out the door. I thought about my summers as a kid in Upstate New York when the peach tree in my grandmother's back yard blossomed and then filled its branches with sweet fuzzy fruit. I would try to shake the tree to get a peach to fall down, but it stubbornly held on until it was ripe enough to fall. Much the same way this market refuses to shake us out of our positions as it refuses to come down. 

I think about that peach tree this time of year. And it's rather ironic that amid all the shaking up of things I don't want shaken, I could never shake the thing I wanted most - a perfect peach off of a perfect tree. And with that I can't shake off this feeling that sometimes we just don't get a choice. Unlike James Bond, we don't get to choose shaken or stirred. 

Perhaps the market needs to shake itself out of its current malaise as well to get to a better place. 

Yeah, maybe a little shaking is what we all need. Maybe Little Richard had it right all along. Check it out.

.

Disclosure: I have no position in SHAK as of this writing.

How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.
Mad About Money 8 years ago Member's comment

Great article. Thanks for sharing.

Carol W 8 years ago Contributor's comment

price per franchise: RRGB 2.2 million per store. JACK 1.2 million Burger King 535k per store...Habit 8 million SHAK 40 million -insane.

Roland Murphy 8 years ago Member's comment

"Shake Shack has only 63 current locations." Shocked it's so few. How does that compare to Chipotle?

Marcy Brown 8 years ago Member's comment

Over 1700 that I can find...

Carol W 8 years ago Contributor's comment

that sounds right..

Dr. Duru 8 years ago Contributor's comment

I love the thematic approach here. SHAK definitely makes those of us who have been around for a while think bubblicious. Next time Yellen complains about valuations, it won't be small caps and bio-tech, it will actually be about burgers and casual dining! :)

Carol W 8 years ago Contributor's comment

woot!

Carol W 8 years ago Contributor's comment

Hey comments are welcome!