Year-over-year import prices declined whilst export price inflation also declined.

Analyst Opinion of the Import / Export Price Situation

Month-over-month price index for fuel imports increased (and non-fuel imports were unchanged) - and the price index for agricultural commodities declined.

Import Oil prices were up 3.8 % month-over-month, and export agricultural prices were down 1.4 %.

• with import prices up 3.5 % year-over-year;
• and export prices up 2,7 % year-over-year.
• the markets were expecting (from Econoday):

There is only marginal correlation between economic activity, recessions and export/import prices. Prices can be rising or falling going into a recession or entering a period of expansion. Econintersect follows this data series to adjust economic activity for the effects of inflation where there are clear relationships.

Econintersect follows this series to adjust data for inflation.

Year-over-Year Change - Import Prices (blue line) and Export Prices (red line)

There are three cases of deflation outside of a recession - early 1990′s, late 1990′s, and mid 2000′s. Import price deflation is normally associated with strengthening of the dollar relative to other currencies.

According to the press release:

All Imports: Import prices advanced 0.5 percent in September, the first monthly increase since a 0.9-percent rise in May. The upturn reversed the declines in each of the previous 2 months. Prices for overall imports rose 3.5 percent from September 2017 to September 2018 and have not recorded an over-the-year decrease since the index fell 0.2 percent in October 2016. Fuel Imports: The price index for import fuels increased 3.8 percent in September, after declining 2.2 percent in August. The September advance was the largest monthly rise since a 6.1-percent increase in May and was led by higher petroleum prices which more than offset lower natural gas prices. Prices for petroleum increased 4.1 percent in September following a 2.3-percent decline the previous month. In contrast, natural gas prices fell 4.0 percent, after decreasing 3.9 percent in August. Fuel prices increased 30.0 percent for the year ended in September, driven by a 32.1-percent advance in petroleum prices. The price index for natural gas fell 1.3 percent over the past 12 months. All Imports Excluding Fuel: Prices for nonfuel imports recorded no change in September, after a 0.2- percent decline in August. Higher foods, feeds, and beverages prices in September offset decreasing prices for nonfuel industrial supplies and materials and consumer goods. The price index for nonfuel imports increased 0.6 percent over the past 12 months. The over-the-year advance was driven mostly by a 4.3- percent rise in nonfuel industrial supplies and materials, although higher prices for consumer goods and automotive vehicles also contributed to the increase. In contrast, prices for foods, feeds, and beverages fell over the same period and prices for capital goods recorded no change.

All Exports: U.S. export prices recorded no change in September following declines in each of the previous 2 months. Those were the first monthly decreases since June 2017. In September, lower agricultural prices offset increasing nonagricultural prices. Despite decreasing over the past quarter, prices for U.S. exports advanced 2.7 percent for the year ended in September. (See table 2.) Agricultural Exports: Agricultural export prices fell 1.4 percent in September, after rising 0.3 percent in August and declining 5.2 percent in July. Overall, agricultural prices decreased 6.2 percent in the third quarter of 2018. The drop in agricultural prices in September and over the past 3 months was driven by lower soybean prices which fell 18.8 percent from June to September. The price index for agricultural exports decreased 2.3 percent over the past year. Declining prices for soybeans, fruits, meat, and nuts all contributed to the 12-month decrease. All Exports Excluding Agriculture: Prices for nonagricultural exports rose 0.2 percent in September following a 0.2-percent decline the previous month. Higher prices for nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials; capital goods; automotive vehicles; and nonagricultural foods all contributed to the September advance in nonagricultural prices. The price index for nonagricultural exports increased 3.3 percent over the past 12 months and has not recorded an over-the-year decline since November 2016.

Month-over-Month Change - Import Prices (blue line) and Export Prices (red line)

The biggest mover of import and export prices are usually oil (imports) and agricultural products (exports).

Oil Import Price Change Month-over-Month (blue line) and Agriculture Export Change Month-over-Month (red line)

Caveats on the Use of the Export/Import Price Index

Both import and export prices index values shown in this post is a weighted average for the entire category of exports or imports. The BLS has many sub-categories relating to a particular commodity or goods. Econintersect using spot checks believes these subindexes are accurate.