September 2018 Import And Export Price Year-Over-Year Inflation Again Moderated

Year-over-year import prices declined whilst export price inflation also declined.

Analyst Opinion of the Import / Export Price Situation

Month-over-month price index for fuel imports increased (and non-fuel imports were unchanged) - and the price index for agricultural commodities declined.

Import Oil prices were up 3.8 % month-over-month, and export agricultural prices were down 1.4 %.

  • with import prices up 3.5 % year-over-year;
  • and export prices up 2,7 % year-over-year.
  • the markets were expecting (from Econoday):
  Consensus Range Consensus Actual
Import Prices - M/M change +0.0 % to +0.5 % +0.2 % +0.5 %
Export Prices - M/M change -0.2 % to +0.3 % +0.3 % +0.0 %

There is only marginal correlation between economic activity, recessions and export/import prices. Prices can be rising or falling going into a recession or entering a period of expansion. Econintersect follows this data series to adjust economic activity for the effects of inflation where there are clear relationships.

Econintersect follows this series to adjust data for inflation.

Year-over-Year Change - Import Prices (blue line) and Export Prices (red line)

 

There are three cases of deflation outside of a recession - early 1990′s, late 1990′s, and mid 2000′s. Import price deflation is normally associated with strengthening of the dollar relative to other currencies.

According to the press release:

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