Of the three regional Federal Reserve surveys released to date, one is in contraction with the rest in expansion.

Analyst Opinion of Richmond Manufacturing

The Richmond Fed subcategories were weak, This was not a good report.

Market expectations from Bloomberg/Econoday was 13 to 18 (consensus 15.0). The actual survey value was 1 [note that values above zero represent expansion].

Manufacturers in the Fifth District were somewhat less upbeat in May than in the prior three months, according to the latest survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The index for shipments and the index for new orders decreased notably, with the shipments index falling to slightly below 0. The index for employment was relatively flat, but the decline in the other two indexes resulted in a decline in the composite index from 20 in April to 1 in May. The majority of firms continued to report higher wages, but more firms reported a decline in the average workweek than reported an increase.

Looking six months ahead, manufacturing executives remained generally optimistic, although the only index to increase was expected capital expenditures. Nonetheless, the expected shipments index had a strong reading of 39 in May (from 42 in April) and the expected new orders index remained relatively high at a reading of 35.

Survey respondents reported that growth in both prices paid and prices received moderated somewhat.

Summary of all Federal Reserve Districts Manufacturing:

Richmond Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z richmond_man.PNG

Kansas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z kansas_man.PNG

Dallas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z dallas_man.PNG

Philly Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z philly fed1.PNG

New York Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z empire1.PNG

Federal Reserve Industrial Production - Actual Data (hyperlink to report):

Holding this and other survey's Econintersect follows accountable for their predictions, the following graph compares the hard data from Industrial Products manufacturing subindex (dark blue bar) and US Census manufacturing shipments (lighter blue bar) to the Richmond Fed survey (darkest bar).

In the above graphic, hard data is the long bars, and surveys are the short bars. The arrows on the left side are the key to growth or contraction.