Restoration Software

While my old college let itself be gobbled up by Harvard, the former women's annex still managed to fill the news Friday after it awarded a Radcliffe medal to the chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen. She attended the women's annex of Brown, called Pembroke, as an undergraduate. Both no longer exist.

Ms Yellen answered a pointed question from Harvard economics professor Gregory Mankiw by saying that “it's appropriate for the Fed to gradually and cautiously increase our overnight interest rate over time, and probably in the coming months such a move would be appropriate.” Among the reason she cited was that it would be another tool for the central bank to use in the even of “renewed recessionary risk.”

Ms Yellen also sounded negative about the use by the Japanese and European central banks of negative interest rates, and appeared to rule out the Fed using this tactic for fear of unnamed “repercussions.

Ms Yellen noted that inflation levels are lower than the Fed's target but also cited the high dollar (which reduces the cost of imports) and the lower oil price as distorting the data.

The market took her remarks as hinting at a further interest rate rise in June. By responding at all, Chair Yellen reinforced her move toward greater openness at the Fed. “The days of never explain, never excuse, are over.”

My own sense of history was boosted by the event. In my day, although Dean Cohen of the Radcliffe Institute apparently doesn't know this, women were discouraged from majoring in economics in the 1950s and early 1960s. Until 1963 there were no lady economics grads, but then Judy Mitchell (later Guéron) and another woman I did not know broke the ban.

Women were also not admitted to the Harvard Business School in that decade. Those wanting a business career were steered into a course in typing and shorthand that Radcliffe offered them to boost their résumés.

A major event in global investing has just occurred, the creation of a new euro-denominated multinational corporation called Coca Cola European Partners plcwhich had sales of euros 11 bn last year in Androrra, Belgium, mainland France, Germany, Britain, Luxembourg, Monaco, The Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, and Sweden. This produced cash flow of about euros 1.8 bn, making newly listed CCE on the NYSE a major consumer goods ADR. Note that our former Coca Cola Hellenic (CCEshare, which delisted from the Big Board, remains out of the new entity, as its coke is sold in Austria, Switzerland, Italy, Greece, Eastern Europe, and the 'stans. It also trades in London but it is incorporated in Switzerland.

I am considering CCE as a way to play the recovery of consumer discretionary spending in Europe. But first let's wait till the dust settles.

*Delek Group (DGRLY) of Israel reported lower sales in the March quarter this year, of New Israel Shekels 1.3 bn down from 1.5 bn. However group operating profits rose nearly 20% to NIS 277 mn, mainly because of 50% more sales of gas from the existing Tamar field. However, net profit fell sharply to NIS 85 mn vs 210 mn in Q1 2015 despite record exploration and production income of NIS 110 mn, nipped by non-core and finance costs including sales of fuel and autos in Israel, a loss on the insurance arm it is selling, and finance operations producing a drain rather than a cash inflow this year.

Had Delek not adjusted its share of earnings in its listed Avner sub, group profits would have been NIS 18 mn higher, but still less than half the 2015 level. Downstream accounted for most of the negatives along with the disastrous history of trying to divest its Phoenix insurance arm in Israel.

Delek also reported that the Israel government has ratified the revised conditions for its development of the Leviathan offshore gasfield and boosting output from Tamar. Leviathan holds 22 trillion cu ft of gas

DGRLY indicated it would repeat its buyback and will resume dividends this year with a payout of NIS 6.66758/share. Signing up with the govt and selling 13 bn cu m of natural gas over the next 18 years to IPM Beer Tuvia power company means Delek will have customer accounts to invest in Tamar.

Phoenix Group is now listed in London so that may make it easier for Delek to divest it.

*Abhimanyu Sisodia reports on the results of Tata Motors (TSLA) from yesterday which led to its stock soaring on the NY opening.

Net Q4 profit beat estimates and tripled to $781 mn, helped by a one-time gain from insurance covering the Tianjin port disaster, and also by a 55% rise in sales for TTM's luxury Jaguar-LandRover division, to $690 mn, beating the 48% in the prior quarter. China sales rose 19%, more than making up the 10% drop in the prior quarter. This was driven by local production there of the Landrover Discovery SUV and the Jag XE. The main negative was a JLR operating margins drop to 16.2% from 17.4% in Q1 2015.

*We were warned plenty about the costs of restructuring and nearly 650 layoffs at its branches plus loan-loss provisions for its energy loans, so the report by Bank of Nova Scotia (BNSbefore the opening had been well; prepared. While its statuatory results were down vs prior year, with income of C$1.584 bn and eps of C$1.23/sh vs $1.42, its adjusted earnings leaving out the restructuring charges were much better than expected.

It beat forecasts by 3 loony pennies, earning C$1.9 bn in Q2 or $1.46/sh, up 3% once the C$278 mn of restructuring charges were removed, as one-offs. Before tax breaks they came to C$378 mn.

However its rivals who invest mostly in the USA all did much better in part because of a stronger loony. Revenues rose nearly 11% to C$6.59 bn, and beat forecasts by C$150 mn. Its unaudited results for the quarter to April 30 were in IFRS accounting standards.

Interest income was flat sequentially but non interest income was up both from the Dec and the April 2015 qaurters. BNS now earns over 80% of its profits in Canada and overseas (mostly in Latin America and not the USA), why we own it in the first place. Canada income rose 18% or $102 mn while Lat Am rose $53 mn or 12%, both vs Q2 2015. Its foreign business was hurt by provisions for credit losses and translation costs, which may not repeat (mostly related also to the energy sector) topping C$752 mn plus provisions for Puerto Rico debt which may be reversed. This compares to $200 mn a year ago.

In its Q2 (BNS began in Nova Scotia where winters are severe) it added new businesses in Panama and Costa Rica. It is increasingly focusing on on-line and retail banking, plus covering its lending with deposits. Its CEO Brian Porter forecast that its prowess in “Pacific Alliance” countries (Mexico, Peru, Chile, and Colombia) will reinforce its longer-term results by boosting both loans and deposits. In its Q2 it boosted its loan loss provisions by 22% sequentially and by 52% from prior year Q2 mainly because of energy loans gone sour. However its tier 1 capital is strong at 10.1%

*Tiny Lingo Media (LMDCFreported a 16% rise but lower profits because of forex losses. The Canadian developer of on-line and print language teaching systems reports in C$s and its net profit came in at under C$51,000 this Q1 vs C$225,429 last year, which works out to zero loony cents/sh vs 1¢ hurt also by a 1/3 increase in the number of shares out. While the numbers disappointed it is growing both its digital learning systems in Latin America and its publishing one in China in the quarter. Moreover it announced new partnerships with Telefonica,the Spanish telco active in Latin America and with Cengage Gale, which operates digital tech courses. LMDCF was down 8.5% yesterday.

*The US FDA asked Teva (TEVAto examine its trial results for its Huntington's disease medication, deutetrabenazine, or SD-809, to determine the levels of some metabolites in patient blood. This is not going to require more trials but will delay the approvals until Q3 of this year, according to the Israeli firm. Its chief scientist is a Huntington's expert. The TEVA drug does not cure the fatal disease but does cut down on the chorea it causes, uncontrollable writhing. It may also be used to treat Tourette's syndrome tics and tardive dyskinesia. Teva bought the drug by acquiring Auspex Pharma last year for $3.2 bn.

*Benitec Biopharma (BNTC) shares collapsed over the long weekend Down Under.

*GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) was downrated to A stable by Fitch. Dr Vivienne Cox, CBE, has been named to the GSK board, after making her career at BP Plc.

Heavy Industry

*Vale (VALE) is back over $4 again after its trading zoomed up on Monday. This may be related to the resignation of the anti-corruption Minister who was caught on tape criticizing the prosecutors going after Petrobras bribery.

*However, Colombia's Ecopetrol (ECwas down yesterday on speculation that the price of oil has peaked. EC

*Canada's Cameco (CCJ) inked a deal with JSC Kazatomprom to boost their jv, called Inkai, for in situ recovery at their uranium mine in Kazakhstan. CCJ owns 60% of the mine but only get 57.5% of the production. Inkai will double its output to 10.4 mn lbs of uranium 308 per year and CCJ will get an additional 1 mn lbs of U308 and its ownership will drop to 40% of the mine. The deal for blocks 1, 2, and 3 run to 2045 and will also restructure the $160 mn lent to Inkai by a CCJ sub.

CCJ may also provide refining technology to a new refinery which will product 6000 tonnes of uranium trioxide per year under license for 5 years, and without royalty payments. Cameco will own 28.33% of the refinery if it is built. Kazatomprom will get an option to get support for conversion

Getting approvals will take 18 to 24 months at CCJ's Port Hope facility which would boost its stake in the jv to 42.5% or even 44% under certain conditions while its refinery stake could rise to 29.33%.

Finance

*Its former CEO copied its former CFO by committing suicide, shortly after we sold Zurich Insurance. The reason is simple: like Americans, most Swiss households own guns. Martin Senn was 55 and had been let go because of poor earnings defeating his plans to take over a UK insurer.

*Banco Latinoamericano de Comercio, or BLX syndicated another Panama bank facility last week, this time for MetroBank SA. BNS lead managed the $40 facility for 3 year money. It earlier raised money for Panama's Banco Aliado.

*A Barclays Bank US employee working in mergers covered deals that were coming. He gave tips on what he learned about 10 mergers to his plumber in return for free renovation of his Manhattan apartment. We own two series of BCS preferreds.

Tech

*Strange bedfellows in Israel where China's Alibaba is partnering with Naspersv (NPSNYof South Africa to invest in Israeli startup Twiggle which boosts searches on e-commerce sites. BABA invested about $5 bn while the NPSNY investment was smaller. The reason this is strange is that NPSNY is a 34% owner of BABA's archrival Tencent Holdings. Twiggle was founded by former Google employees and uses artificial intelligence to refine searching for Internet shoppers.

*Macquarie analysts upped their rating of CAE, the Canadian maker of aviation training systems to outperform from neutral. Quebec province is spending heavily with over C$ 500 mn in credits and loans to boost its aviation industry and is pressuring Ottawa to chip in. Simulator-maker CAE is Quebequoise.

Fund Fun

*Pershing Square Holdings appears to have agreed to pay the former CEO of Valeant, Mike Pearson, a retainer for consulting services. This is bad news for shareholder activists among whom now we no longer count Bill Ackman who sits on VRX's board.

*Pimco funds gained some from betting on Mexican bonds and shorting British ones, but the overall results were lower than those for the indexes it tracks. This means the Total Return Fund will cleave more closely to the average and drop deviating positions to keep the institutions on board. It is unclear how much this affects our sole Pimco holding, Pimco Dynamic Income, PDI, a closed end fund.

*Gold popped up surprisingly despite a rise in the dollar last week. GLD may just have reacted to new demand from Asian markets like India and China, which do not really care about the dollar-denominated price of the yellow metal. However SPDR Gold fell in April, the first down month in 2016.

Disclosure: None.

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