As I searched for an image to use for tonight’s market metaphor, I simply stepped outside the door and saw this:

Rising cirrus clouds above an expanding pinon tree, both stirred by the hot midday sun.

Who am I kidding? Yes, I do like writing poetry. But as a trader, what really caused me to snap the photo is the way the clouds show an upward trend and a breakaway gap.

The day after the FOMC minutes and all of our speculation on how the Fed’s more hawkish statements might impact the market, the TLTs rose alongside the key Modern Family index and sectors.

Nevertheless, as commodities enjoyed a weaker U.S. dollar and the slight relief in rates, my idyllic picture remains plagued by the “what ifs” the Fed themselves keep repeating.

A rising Modern Family. Rising Commodities prices. Falling dollar, Better-than-expected jobless claims.

Aren’t those, like the threat of an afternoon thunderstorm, the very stats that support raising the interest rates?

And why, as I write that do I hear that Funny Girl song in my head, “Don’t Rain on My Parade?”

The Russell 2000 had an impressive day. At this point, the next direction looks as clear as that blue New Mexican sky. Either IWM clears the end of July 2015, first week of August 2015 high of 123.67 or not.

With this week’s high thus far at 123.68, a clearance will add chirping birds to the picture. If not, look for a break of 121.00 area and a potential correction to 118-119. If that happens, the FED will let September slip by with nary a word about raising the rates.

Much the same can be said for three other key sectors. Retail (XRT) has yet to make new 2016 highs. It must.

Transportation (IYT) cleared near-term resistance levels, yet it too has distance between it and the 2016 highs.

Regional Banks (KRE) has the potential to close the week above last week’s high 41.64. However, with 43.00 the 2016 high, it needs more.

Although the TLTs have kept one step above the 50 Daily Moving Average, that step grows narrower. Oxymoron I know as one cannot grow narrower. To be fair, the step grows narrower because the slope of that moving average keeps rising.

If you Photoshop all the elements into one bullish image-the sun would look like the 2016 highs the sectors have eluded getting to. The clouds would look like the rising 50 DMA on the TLT chart.

The pinon tree provides a perch for a hawk. A perch the hawkish Federal Reserve presidents will land on should our Modern Family sectors rise above the clouds and the sun.

S&P 500 (SPY) Now has to clear 219.50 to keep going and hold 217

Russell 2000 (IWM) 123.68 or bust

Dow (DIA) Has to clear 186.88 to keep going and hold 185

Nasdaq (QQQ) 117.97 is the place to clear next

XLF (Financials) January high 24.27 to clear. 23.90 area is now pivotal support.

KRE (Regional Banks) 42.00 big resistance and next point to clear

SMH (Semiconductors) Strong

IYT (Transportation) Now must hold 142 and get to 144.41

IBB (Biotechnology) As long as it closes out the week over 290, it’s doing its job

XRT (Retail) 46.50 is the place for this to clear

IYR (Real Estate) Couldn’t quite confirm the reversal although holding the 50 DMA

ITB (US Home Construction) Inside day after holding the 50 DMA

GLD (Gold Trust) So far still trading within the range of last week 127.20-129.26

SLV (Silver) 18.90 a good place to finally clear once and for all

USO (US Oil Fund) A weekly close over 11.45 would be exciting

TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) If fills gap to 22.10 excellent

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) 138.53 the 50 DMA which it’s been above since June 1.