Plague, Sword, Famine

Fiat-Chrysler relisted on the US market with an IPO earlier. FCAU is the unfortunate ticker symbol.

Also from Italy, the NY Times reports that bishops are moving toward easing the strictures against remarriage of divorced Catholics and homosexuality in their current Vatican synod.

Still Plenty To Worry About

Since the 9th century, Jews list the perils of the day and the terrors of the night they ask God to spare them from. This occurs both in the Avinu Malkeinu (Our Father and Our Ruler) prayer during the High Holy Days and in evening prayers called “Hashkiveinu” (May We Lie Down.)

The lists vary but always include: plague, the sword, and famine. In modern translations the terms have been watered down to “harmful things.” It may be appropriate to restore the original text and also the music of Italian Renaissance composer Salomone de Rossi.

The first two things Jews pray against are here already. The current plagues are Ebola and Marburg, and the remaining depredations of SARS, TB, AIDS, polio, measles, whatever. There is no fear of a comeback of smallpox, cholera, bubonic and pneumonic plague, typhus and typhoid unless terrorists get a hold of the germs.

The sword is a metaphor for war, which has made an unexpected comeback in Europe (not only Ukraine), the Middle East (not only Islamic State in Syria and Iraq), and Asia. Not counting terrorists which can strike virutally anywhere.

Famine is next on the list.

Resiliant In Parts

You don't have to wait for Hallowe'en to be frightened. Columbus Day will do. However yesterday's stock markets are proving to be resiliant, if only in parts like the curate's egg. Perhaps famine will be averted as three of our shares are up smartly.

Just to scare you some more there is another Jewish holiday Thursday when you will again not get a blog. It is called Simchat Torah-Shmini Atzereth in the Reform Jewish canon. That stands for: Joy of the Torah plus Eighth Day of Assembly. For Reform Jews it also includes Hoshanah Rabbah, the great Hosanah, when the fate of the new year of 5775 is sealed. This traditional Jews observe on Wednesday.

Famine and Plague Stocks

*The way to gain from famine is from plant nutrition shares: Agrium, Allana Potash (AGU, ALLRF, both Canadian.)

*The plague gave us a winner, Bavarian Nordic biotech, up 25.75% this morning in Copenhagen, and at $24.47 in US trading. Your editor bought more and advised others to do so 3 weeks ago. Danes now realize that vaccines are hot. (NB: Other US-based biotechs are also rising on Ebola testing and treating hopes.)

*Cosan rose nearly 6.2% in Brazilian trading today on news that Marina Silva had endored the right-wing candidate Aécio Neves. She was raised in the Amazon by a family which often went hungry. The polls show Neves well ahead of incumbent Dilma Rousseff in the run-off to take place Oct. 26. CZZ

*Even more surprising was the jump in the price of iron-ore miner Vale. This reflects much higher September trade figures from China, with exports up 15.3% over prior year levels, and imports up 7%. China suffered the world's last major famine in 1958-62 during the period when Mao Tse-Tung tried to reform its agriculture and economy during the “Great Leap Forward”. The number who died of hunger may have reached 30 million people. In US trading VALE is up 7% at $11.67. Clarkson analysts just downrated VALE to hold with a $10 target price. (This and other rating news is from Analyst Ratings Network Daily.)

*The upbeat mood has swung to Panama and Colombia where Banco Latino and Ecopetrol are up and to Latin America overall.

*It also spread to Spain where Santander and Abengoa are recovering. SAN, ABGB.

Oil Fortunes

*Some of this has spilled over into optimism about oil exploration, even though Saudi Arabia now is warning that the price per barrel may fall as low as $80. Chinese fracking may revive the fortune of Anton Oilfields, ATONY, which is up 4.7% in Hong Kong trading.

*Its part parent Schlumberger Ltd is down today despite signing (with partner Cameron) a contract worth $270 mn for the first ever deepwater subsea field to be developed by Pemex, in Gulf of Mexico waters offshore Veracruz. SLB is undertaking to finance part of the costs of exploration for companies short of ready money in return for part of the output.

Still pending is a Schlumberg deal with Petrobras, delayed by the election in Brazil. At $92 and change, SLB is priced at less than 18.5x earnings. It is one of my rare picks that also is tipped by US15-yr market beaters, according to Hulbert's Financial Digest. (SLB is Dutch but doesn't make a big noise about this. Run mostly from Houston, its dominant shareholders are French and its CEO is Norwegian.)

*Its Portuguese motherland is doing less well than Brazil. The Financial Timesreports that foreign bidders for Novo Banco (former Banco Espirito Santo, now bankrupt) have offered under half the asking price of euros 4.9 bn. Portugal Telecom is up modestly. PT is a potential beneficiary of a distress sale of BES assets. HSBCanalysts today downrated PT to underweight from neutral. It joins Santander in the downgrade. Berenberg Bank has a buy on PT like me.

*A takeout on which companies will benefit from the eventual arrival of driver-less cars helped Nokia whose HERE mapping system is among the technology which will be used. NOK is up ~2% and back of $8.

Benitech Mystery

*Mysteriously, despite the positive proof of concept per-clinical experiments with dCellVax, a personalized breast cancer immunotherapy being developed using gene-silencing technology licensed from Benitech Biopharma, BTEBY stock has plummetted. The idea is to train T-cells of the immune system to kill tumors by silencing a gene in human dendritic cells. It works in animals. Licensee Regen Biopharma plans to apply for US FDA trials in breast cancer patients. Regen is a controlled sub of Bio-Matrix Scientific, BMSN, which is also down, but not 16-17% on huge volumes, 50% over a normal full day so far today. As I just averaged down I cannot figure it out unless the share is being manipulated.

*Deutsche Bank (via Banker's Trust the depositary for its ADR) has upped its rating of Infosys to Buy from Hold. INFY is up on the news.

Fund notes:

*Our US dollar ETF PowerShares US$ Index Bullish had an 8th successive week of monster inflows. The UUP ETF led the pack and had 4x as much new money (nearly $155 mn) as the No. 2 currency ETF. It now has over $880 mn under management,www.seekingalpha.com reported today.

*One reason I prefer Mexican Equity & Income Fund to rivals (apart from its female manager) is that it grossly underweights America Movil. AMX was downrated today from neutral to sell by Citigroup analysts. We told you first about 25 years ago.

*Self Storage Group is up 18.4% this morning on a near-full day volume, hitting $4.50. SELF is the successor of our closed-end Global Income Fund, GIFD. It reported Sept. 30 net asset value at $4.86. so the move up is partly explained by catch-up.

*Oops. Our Korea expert reader says that I have mistakenly believed rumors about Kim III, the current dictator of North Korea. He seems to be suffering merely from a leg injury, not a fatal disease or being overthrown.

Be-Trayed Again?

*Neiges d'antan. China Chaintek United posted in English the terms of its dividend available in two flavors: more stock or cash. I couldn't access it. My China London shares are now held in a US account with neither the ability to trade nor track them. And the latest casualty is news. CTEK was purchased when it was listed on the London Alternative Investment Market, AIM, most recently in late August. Now the shares have been sequestered by the E-trade brokerage I use. I do not want my dividend to go to E-trade or its London market-maker, Crédit Suisse.

Disclosure: None

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