Persistent Weakness

Even I am surprised (pleasantly, but surprised nonetheless) at how persistently bearish the market has been. Indeed, I’ve become quite spoiled by it. When the prospect of ANY day being a green day is at hand, I pout and fuss. It used to be just the opposite. Those rare red days would be a welcome refreshment. As it is now, more often than not, the market just grinds lower, and it’s wonderful.

Strip away the drawings. Even remove the prices. And get rid of my bluster. Just look at the raw, simple, straightforward exponential moving averages (50/100/200) to see what a sea-change is taking place. Here’s the Nasdaq 100 QQQ:

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……..the small caps IWM……..

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……and the least-damaged of the three, the SPY:

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There is one and only one thing giving me the jitters, and that’s the (increasingly unlikely) prospect of some kind of “deal” (or at least the semblance of one) with our trade enemy, China. As the market continues to shrink, dragging Trump’s popularity with it, the hypersensitive megalomaniac is going to do anything – – anything at all – – to try to shore things up. So he may conjure up some kind of God-knows-what compromise with China, temporarily lurching equities higher.

Ultimately, it will fail. If one examines the truth with clear vision, he will realize the man screws up everything he encounters, whether it’s marriage, child-rearing, or (honorable) business dealings. It’ll be the same with any kind of bizarre compromise they dream up. Inevitably, the market will continue falling for years to come, and the hostilities – – which are just taunting tweets and Communist communiques at this point – – will metastasize into outright war.

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