It appears the credit market's dead-cat-bounce party is over. Following the almost unprecedented bounce off the February lows, the last few days have seen HYG (the largest high yield bond ETF) tumble back below its 200-day moving average as credit spreads (in IG and HY) start to widen significantly. The driver of this sudden weakness is now clear - a $2.3bn 4-day outflow which is the most sudden and largest redemption ever.

HYG tumbles below its 20-day moving average after the panic buying off the lows...

(Click on image to enlarge)

Driven by the largest 4-day cumulative fund outflows ever...

(Click on image to enlarge)

Which has smashed HYG back to a 'zero' premium to NAV as HY spreads push back to 2-month highs. We had argued previously that HYG (and the bond ETFs) had become cash storage facilities for credit funds unable to find enough cash bonds and new issuance to dump their flows into and so the massive outflows this last 4 days could be a sign of a preparation for a heavier HY calendar going forward (silver lining) or perhaps it is just time to get back to cash and reduce exposure after the biggest v-shaped recovery on record (amid tumbling earnings and macro).