ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward remains in expansion. This is compared to RecessionAlerts similar weekly leading index.

Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices

Both ECRI's and RecessionAlerts indices are indicating modest growth six months from today.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

Weekly Leading Index Rises

ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) rose to 146.6 from 145.3, as WLI growth increased to 2.3% from 1.3%. 

To put the message of our forward-looking data in perspective please see story links below:

- watch Lakshman Achuthan's recent Bloomberg TV interview.

- read ECRI's "Consensus Plays Catch Up to Our Global Growth Call"

For a closer look at the performance of the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below: 

Comparison to RecessionAlert Weekly Indicator

RecessionAlert also produces a weekly forward indicator using different pulse points the ECRI's WLI. Here is a graph from dshort.com which compares the two indices. These indices are now showing slightly different trends.

Coincident Index:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index - a positive number shows economic expansion. The September index value (issued in October) shows the rate of economic growth was unchanged.

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure. Inflation pressures are receding

U.S. FIG Ticks Up

U.S. inflationary pressures were up slightly in September, as the U.S. future inflation gauge grew to 111.8 from 111.7 in August, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:.

z ecri_infl.PNG

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The September economy's rate of growth (released in October) showed the rate of growth slowed.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI