Netflix Advances After Analysts Say 2020 Profit Can Exceed Expectations

The shares of Netflix (NFLX) are rising, and have hit a 52-week high, after both Piper Jaffray and William Blair opined that the company's 2020 profits could significantly exceed expectations. Additionally, Piper raised its price target on Netflix shares to $190 from $166.

PIPER: If Netflix's international streaming business comes "anywhere close" to matching the growth trajectory of its U.S. business, then the 2020 consensus earnings per share estimate for the company is about 100% too low, wrote Piper analyst Michael Olson. Six years after reaching 20M subscribers in the U.S, Netflix's service had penetrated 51% of high speed U.S. Internet households, Olson reported. However, Olson's current estimates assume that Netflix's penetration of international high speed Internet households, excluding China, will only be 16% in 2020, which is six years after the company's overseas business reached the 20M subscriber mark. Although the international penetration rate probably won't reach 51% in 2020, the discrepancy is "large," especially since Netflix's competition overseas is less intense than in the U.S., the analyst stated. Moreover, 50% of high speed Internet users in seven countries surveyed by Piper either have Netflix subscriptions or plan to obtain one in 2017, according to Olson. He believes that analysts' forecasts for the company's international business "appear overly conservative," while its 2020 profit could exceed the consensus outlook. Olson kept an Overweight rating on the stock.

WILLIAM BLAIR: Analysts' 2020 contribution margin estimate of 30% for Netflix is too low, wrote analyst Ralph Schackart. The Street may be underestimating Netflix's ability to profit from sequels to the hit shows it has already launched, explained Schackart. Netflix's "income statement margins" can reach 37% in 2020 if it exploits sequels, the analyst stated. He kept an Outperform rating on the stock.

PRICE ACTION: In morning trading, Netflix rose 3.4% to $163.08. The stock earlier hit a 52-week high of $163.48.

Disclosure: None. 

 

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