Net Investment Flows Turn Positive As Growth Picks Up

Nearly ten years on from the start of the financial crisis and it looks as if the recovery is well and truly here.

According to Bloomberg, the second quarter was the best earnings season for US companies in 13 years, with more than three-quarters of the Standard & Poor’s 500 member companies beating analyst expectations.

Even though the third quarter is generally the weakest quarter of the year for firm’s, the trend reported in the first half has continued with year-over-year profit growth is estimated at nearly 8% for the S&P 500, below the double-digit gains seen in the first two quarters of the year. The Tech sector has accounted for the bulk of this growth with the sector’s earnings up 22.8% from a year ago, rising beyond a projection of 12.2% from the beginning of October according to Reuters.

However, it’s not just the US Tech sector that’s carrying the market. Companies around the world are reporting higher earnings, and this is benefitting US firms. Nearly two-thirds of European companies have beaten expectations so far this year as the European economy gains traction. Year-on-year earnings growth at European firms is estimated at 9.8% in dollar terms on average.

World growth was raised by the International Monetary Fund to 3.6% for this year, while the euro zone is seen expanding 2.1%, reflecting an export revival as well as stronger domestic demand.

Europe's recovery is really what's driving global growth. In October the region's jobless rate fell to 8.8%, the lowest level since January 2009.

At the end of 2016, the EU was the world's second-largest economy generating $19.2 trillion of economic output. China was in first place with $21.3 trillion in economic output, and the US came third with $18.6 trillion. Combined, China and the EU generate 33.9% of the world's industrial output.

Net Investment Flows Boost Asset Managers

All of the above is good news for the world's asset managers. Following a sustained period of economic growth and strong earnings performance, investors' appetite for risk has improved. According to rating agency Moody's, EBITDA for the most massive US asset managers rose 8.1% sequentially and 13.0% versus Q3 2016 in the third quarter reflecting "both higher top-line revenue and strong expense discipline."

For the group assets under management rose 4.1% sequentially on "strong global equity markets and modest organic growth." Total AUM is now 14.6% higher than a year ago, reflecting "more than a year of benign market conditions." Long-term net flows for the surveyed group were positive $86.6 billion, or 0.8% of beginning of period AUM. Excluding BlackRock, this is the first time the industry has seen positive net flows form the first time since the third quarter of 2015.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Net Investment Flows

These figures seem to align with Bank of America's data which shows that, for the first time since the financial crisis, private investors are now buying equities. A recent issue of the bank's equity flow trendsreport shows a net inflow of nearly $9 billion year-to-date, compared to last year's net outflow of $14 billion.

Disclaimer: This article is NOT an investment recommendation,  please see our disclaimer - Get ...

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