Despite over 151,000 September contracts being traded today, the contract saw a narrow trading range of only 5.6 cents, bringing the 5-day average trading range down to the lowest levels since June. 

Similarly, the 5.6-cent range today was the smallest observed by a prompt month contract since June 8th, when prices remained within a 4.8-cent range. In the two months since we have seen prices decently rally all along the natural gas strip, but gains have been most significant near the front. 

Meanwhile, it hasn't been since April 8th and 11th that we had back-to-back trading days with the daily range smaller than 6 cents. Part of the problem is that the September contract is currently trapped near a number of support and resistance levels; prices sit on a long-term uptrend but also have been making lower highs the past month, setting up a rapidly narrowing wedge. Throw in the 20, 30, and 50-DMAs all being in play today and it makes more sense why prices were so confined. 

It may be that to break out of this wedge meaningfully we need some significant catalyst, as last week's bullish EIA data did not appear to be enough. We remain at an impasse with hot weather forecasts continuing to elevate powerburn and demand, but a significant storage overhang preventing prices from breaking out higher. Tomorrow may yet bring a break of this trend-line should prices be ready to move a leg lower, and with that a move towards $2.62 could come quickly. Otherwise, we could see one more bounce back into the upper level of the wedge to test it again.