December contract natural gas prices are now down five out of the last six trading sessions as cold to end November and bring in December has been rather unimpressive. We continue to watch the gap below that bulls have thus far been able to defend, but a new short-term low today seemed to put it further in danger. 

Yet while forward weather expectations pulled down natural gas futures, Henry Hub cash was flat on the day, seeing relatively little interest heading into the holiday-shortened week. 

This cash firmness helped limit losses for the prompt month December contract compared to the rest of the winter strip, albeit barely. 

Yet through the day today it was clear that bearish weather expectations were dragging down prices, as again we saw large losses for the March/April H/J spread, which indicates a decreasing winter premium. 

Weather guidance continues to play the primary role with natural gas price action, and our products are designed to keep clients ahead of the next natural gas move. Today we published our Natural Gas Weekly Update, which is our flagship 14-page report that takes a look at natural gas technicals and fundamentals while weaving in the latest weather-driven analysis. Traders can view content like the page below that provides a technical overview of the market. 

This is provided alongside our latest weather forecasts, which are then used to create our market sentiment. The below GWDD forecast was from this morning's report, with traders clearly seeing that we are expecting weather-driven demand a bit below seasonal averages over the next 15 days (hence the weakness in prices). 

Then this afternoon clients received our Afternoon Update which breaks down the afternoon weather models and expected price action into tomorrow. This always provides a comparison of the latest Climate Prediction Center forecasts as well to show what the natural gas market appears to already be pricing in and expecting. 

The goal here is to ensure that subscribers are kept ahead of every major natural gas price move and know whether it is weather-driven or perhaps something else, be it balance-related, technically-driven, etc.