Natural gas prices traded within a very tight range again today, bouncing initially after today's EIA print but declining from there into the settle. 

Despite the print that seemed to hit expectations, and if anything missed a bit bullish, the March natural gas contract declined by far the most on the day. 

The result was a pretty significant tick back lower in the H/J spread today. 

Though today's withdrawal was a bit larger than average, it was still smaller than the 5-year average. 

It also fits well within the cluster of prints we have seen over the past 10 gas weeks as well. 

The withdrawal was just 4 bcf from our estimate sent to subscribers today, with it missing on the slightly bullish side, but despite an initial spike in the seconds after the number it was largely sold into. In our EIA Data Rapid Release today we outlined how the print impacted our reading of current market supply/demand balance and put it within historical context. 

One thing traders will be watching the March contract option expiration tomorrow will be the March/April H/J spread, which as mentioned took that anomalous dip today. The spread remains above a number of past years (including last year) though we note stockpiles this year are below average with weather turning more supportive in early March. 

This modestly more supportive weather can be seen on the Climate Prediction Center forecast that has turned a bit colder in the 8-14 Day time frame. 

After some very limited volatility recently we can expect to see a bit more action with options expiry tomorrow and then the March contract expiry on Monday.