Overnight Markets And News

Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU18 +0.35%) this morning are up +0.35% and European stocks are up +0.37% on a temporary respite from Turkey's financial turmoil. The Turkish lira rose more than 5% against the dollar and Turkey's 10-year government bond yield fell more than 100 bp to 21.46%. White House National Security Adviser Bolton told Turkey's ambassador that the U.S. will not negotiate with Turkey on sanctions or tariffs until a detained American pastor is freed. European stocks also found support from an upward revision to Eurozone Q2 GDP and to a stronger-than-expected German Aug ZEW economic growth survey. Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan +2.28%, Hong Kong -0.66%, China -0.18%, Taiwan +0.70%, Australia +0.76%, Singapore -0.08%, South Korea +0.42%, India +0.55%. Chinese stocks closed lower on signs of a slowdown in economic momentum after China Jul industrial production and Jul retail sales both rose less than expected.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.10%) is down -0.11%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD -0.05%) is down -0.05%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY+0.20%) is up +0.21%.

Sep 10-year T-note prices (ZNU18 -0-050) are down -6 ticks.

The German Aug ZEW survey expectations of economic growth rose +11.0 to -13.7, stronger than expectations of +3.4 to -21.3.

Eurozone Q2 GDP was revised upward to +0.4% q/q and +2.2% y/y, stronger than expectations of no change at +0.3% q/q and +2.1% y/y.

Eurozone Jun industrial production fell -0.7% m/m, weaker than expectations of -0.4% m/m.

The UK Jun ILO unemployment rate unexpectedly fell -0.2 to 4.0%, better than expectations of no change at 4.2% and the lowest in 43-1/3 years.

UK Jun avg weekly earnings rose +2.4% 3-mo avg/year-over-year, weaker than expectations of +2.5% 3-mo avg/year-over-year. Jun avg weekly earnings ex-bonus rose +2.7% 3-mo avg/year-over-year, right on expectations.

China Jul industrial production rose +6.0% y/y, weaker than expectations of +6.3% y/y.

China Jul retail sales rose +8.8% y/y, weaker than expectations of +9.1% y/y.

U.S. Stock Preview

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Jul import price index (expected unch m/m and +4.5% y/y, Jun -0.4% m/m and +4.3% y/y) and Jul import price index ex-petroleum (expected +0.1% m/m, Jun -0.3% m/m).

Notable Russell 2000 earnings reports today include: Home Depot (consensus $2.84), Advance Auto Parts (1.86), Agilent Technologies (0.63).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.

Equity conferences during the remainder of this week: KeyBanc Capital Markets Technology Leadership Forum on Mon-Tue, Susquehanna Energy Conference on Tue, Nomura Instinet Cloud Builders Summit on Tue, D&H Technology Conference 2018 on Thu.

Market Comments

Sep S&P 500 E-minis (ESU18 +0.35%) this morning are up +10.00 points (+0.35%). Monday's closes: S&P 500 -0.40%, Dow Jones -0.50%, Nasdaq 100 -0.10%. The S&P 500 on Monday fell to a 1-week low and closed lower on negative carry-over from a slide in European stocks to a 1-1/4 month low as European bank stocks fell on concern about exposure to Turkish debt. There was also weakness in energy stocks after crude oil prices fell -0.64% to a 1-3/4 month low.

Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU18 -0-050) this morning are down -6 ticks. Monday's closes: TYU8 -4.00, FVU8 -2.75. Sep 10-year T-notes on Monday retreated from a 1-1/2 month high and closed lower on supply pressures as bond dealers sold T-note futures to hedge $14 billion of corporate debt issued by United Technologies to finance its acquisition of Rockwell Collins. T-notes also saw reduced safe-haven demand after stocks recovered from their worst levels. T-note prices earlier jumped to a 1-1/2 month high during the overnight session on safe-haven demand after Turkey's lira plunged to a new record low against the dollar, which bolstered concern Turkey's economic crisis would spread to European banks.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.10%) this morning is down -0.104 (-0.11%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD -0.05%) is down -0.0006 (-0.05%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY +0.20%) is up +0.23 (+0.21%). Monday's closes: Dollar Index +0.834 (+0.04%), EUR/USD -0.0003 (-0.03%), USD/JPY -0.13 (-0.12%). The dollar index on Monday rallied to a 13-month high and closed higher on weakness in EUR/USD which fell to a 13-1/4 month low on concern Turkey's financial crisis may lead to default on Turkish debt held by European banks. The dollar was also boosted by higher T-note yields, which improved the dollar's interest rate differentials. USD/JPY fell to a 1-1/2 month low on increased safe-haven demand for the yen due to the financial turmoil in Turkey.

Metals this morning are mixed with Dec gold (GCZ18 +0.26%) +2.9 (+0.24%), Sep silver (SIU18 +0.32%) +0.038 (+0.25%) and Sep copper (HGU18 -0.40%) -0.013 (-0.48%) at a 1-week low. Monday's closes: Dec gold -20.1 (-1.65%), Sep silver -0.313 (-2.05%), Sep copper -0.0115 (-0.42%). Metals on Monday closed lower with Dec gold at a 1-1/2 year low and Sep silver at a 2-1/3 year low. Metals prices were undercut by concern the financial turmoil in Turkey and the China/U.S. trade tensions will curb global economic growth and industrial metals demand. Copper prices were undercut by increased copper supplies as LME copper inventories rose +875 MT to a 1-1/2 week high of 254,400.

Sep WTI crude oil (CLU18 +1.12%) this morning is up +63 cents (+0.94%). Sep gasoline (RBU18 +1.55%) is up +2.80 cents (+1.39%). Monday's closes: Sep crude oil -0.43 (-0.64%), Sep gasoline -2.45 (-1.20%). Sep crude oil and gasoline on Monday closed lower with Sep crude at a 1-3/4 month low and Sep gasoline at a 4-month nearest-futures low. Crude oil prices were undercut by negative carry-over from Friday's Baker Hughes report that U.S. active oil rigs in the week ended Aug 10 rose by +10 rigs to 869 rigs, a 3-1/3 year high. Crude oil prices were also undercut by news that OPEC July crude production rose +41,000 bpd to 32.32 million bpd and by concern that contagion from Turkey's financial crisis may slow global economic growth and energy demand.

Overnight U.S. Stock Movers

Alliance Data Systems (ADS -0.35%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' at JPMorgan Chase with a price target of $281.

HCA Healthcare (HCA +0.37%) was rated a new 'Overweight' at Barclays with a price target of $150.

Kaiser Aluminum (KALU -1.07%) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Neutral' at Goldman Sachs with a price target of $101.

Paychex (PAYX +0.20%) was downgraded to 'Underweight' from 'Neutral' at JPMorgan Chase with a price target of $76.

Chubb Ltd (CB -0.67%) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Hold' at Deutsche Bank with a price target of $126.

DCP Midstream LP (DCP -1.41%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Stifel with a price target of $51.

Yext (YEXT -0.79%) rose 3% in after-hours trading after it was rated a new 'Buy' at SunTrust Robinson Humphrey with a price target of $27.

Veritone (VERI +7.63%) slumped almost 15% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 gross margin of 80.3%, weaker than consensus of 88.2%.

Switch (SWCH -0.64%) plunged more than 20% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 revenue of $102.2 million, below consensus of $102.8 million, and then lowered its full-year revenue estimate to $405 million to $408 million from a prior view of $423 million to $440 million, weaker than consensus of $428.3 million.

Vipshop Holdings Ltd (VIPS -1.42%) dropped nearly 9% in after-hours trading after it forecast Q3 revenue of 17.3 billion yuan to 18.1 billion yuan, below consensus of 18.76 billion yuan.

Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA -2.49%) was rated a new 'Outperform' at Raymond James with a price target of $18.

Gran Tierra Energy (GTE -4.20%) jumped almost 6% in after-hours trading after board member David Smith, bought 77,500 shares of the company's stock on Friday at an average price of $3.39.