OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH17 +0.16%) are up +0.14% at a fresh all-time nearest-futures high and European stocks are up +0.73% at a 2-week high. Global stocks rallied Monday, spurred on by gains Friday in U.S. stock indexes to record highs. Gains in commodity producing stocks are leading the overall market higher as the price of Mar COMEX copper (HGH17 +0.54%) jumped +0.61% to a 1-1/2 year high. Copper prices have rallied sharply on supply concerns as an indefinite strike at BHP Billiton's Escondida mine in Chile, the world's biggest copper mine, has forced BHP Billiton to declare force majeure on its copper shipments. Also, Freeport-McMoRan suspended copper concentrate output at its Grasberg mining complex in Indonesia, the world's second-largest copper mine, as the company continues to negotiate with the government over the terms of its mining permit. Weakness in energy producing stocks has limited the upside in the overall market with a -0.74% decline in Mar WTI crude oil futures (CLH17 -0.37%) that were under pressure from Friday's data from Baker Hughes that showed U.S. active oil rigs increased to their highest in 1-1/4 years. Asian stocks settled higher: Japan +0.41%, Hong Kong +0.58%, China +0.63%, Taiwan +0.46%, Australia +0.70%, Singapore +0.36%, South Korea +0.06%, India +0.06%. China's Shanghai Composite posted a 2-month high on optimism in China's economic outlook and Japan's Nikkei stock index rose to a 1-1/4 month high. Japanese stocks rose after Japan Q4 GDP expanded less than forecast, which undercut the yen and boosted exporter stocks as USD/JPY rallied to a 2-week high.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.05%) is down -0.06%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.01%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.38% at a 2-week high.

Mar 10-year T-note prices (ZNH17 -0.18%) are down -6 ticks.

Japan Q4 GDP rose +1.0% (q/q annualized), weaker than expectations of +1.1% (q/q annualized). Q4 private consumption was unch q/q, right on expectations. Q4 business spending rose +0.9% q/q, weaker than expectations of +1.2% q/q. The Q4 GDP deflator fell -0.1% y/y, stronger than expectations of -0.2% y/y.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) USDA weekly grain export inspections.

Notable S&P 500 earnings reports today include: Noble Energy (consensus $-0.10), HCP (0.57), Federal Realty Trust (1.44), Vornado Realty Trust (1.31).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.

Equity conferences: Credit Suisse Energy Summit on Mon-Wed, RSA Security Conference on Mon-Thu, Stifel Transportation and Logistics Conference on Tue-Wed, Goldman Sachs Technology and Internet Conference on Tue-Thu, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Insurance Conference on Wed-Thu, Leerink Partners Global Health Care Conference on Wed-Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Nucor (NUE +0.03%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Equalweight' at Morgan Stanley with a price target of $78.

AK Steel (AKS -3.12%) was downgraded to 'Equalweight' from 'Overweight' at Morgan Stanley with a price target of $11.

Occidental Petroleum (OXY +0.41%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Mizuho Securities USA.

Travelers (TRV +0.80%) was downgraded to 'Market Perform' from 'Outperform' at FBR Capital Markets.

Gannet (GCI -1.22%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Argus.

Hasbro (HAS -0.11%) was rated a new 'Buy' at Goldman Sachs with a price target of $110.

J.C. Penney (JCP +0.99%) was upgraded to 'Equalweight' from 'Underweight' at Morgan Stanley with a price target of $7.

Myriad Genetics (MYGN -0.93%) jumped almost 7% in after-hours trading after it was announced that it will replace Inteliquent in the S&P SmallCap 600 after the close of trading on Tuesday, February 14.

Pershing Square Capital Management said it raised its stake in Restaurant Brands (QSR +1.10%) to 18.1% from a 16.7% stake held in September.

Michael Kors Holdings Ltd (KORS +0.29%) lost 1% in after-hours trading after it said a technical issue with an information technology reporting system made it unable release its Form 10-Q for the quarter ending December 31.

Knoll (KNL +3.09%) slid 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 net sales of $292.9 million, below consensus of $313.5 million.

Hain Celestial Group (HAIN -0.28%) dropped nearly 7% in pre-market trading after it said it doesn't expect to file 10-Q until internal accounting review and audit process are completed and that the SEC issued a formal order of investigation and issued a subpoena seeking relevant documents.

Vera Bradley (VRA +3.94%) fell 3% in after-hours trading after it was announced that CFO Kevin Sierks will step down on March 31.

MARKET COMMENTS

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH17 +0.16%) this morning are up +3.25 points (+0.14%) at a new all-time nearest-futures high. Friday's closes: S&P 500 +0.36%, Dow Jones +0.48%, Nasdaq +0.28%. The S&P 500 on Friday climbed to a fresh all-time high and closed higher. Stock prices were lifted by strength in China's economy after China Jan exports rose +7.9% y/y, stronger than expectations of +3.2% y/y and the largest increase in 23 months. Stocks also found carry-over support from Thursday's statement from President Trump that a "phenomenal" plan to overhaul business taxes within weeks, which stoked optimism the tax cuts will spur economic growth and boost the after-tax profits for investors.

Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH17 -0.18%) this morning are down -6 ticks. Friday's closes: TYH7 -4.50, FVH7 -2.75. Mar 10-year T-notes on Friday closed lower on reduced safe-haven demand with the rally in the S&P 500 to a new all-time high and on signs of strength in the global economy after China Jan exports and imports both showed strength.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.05%) this morning is down -0.06 (-0.06%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is +0.0001 (+0.01%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is +0.043 (+0.38%) at a 2-week high. Friday's closes: Dollar index +0.15 (+0.15%), EUR/USD -0.0012 (-0.11%), USD/JPY -0.03 (-0.03%). The dollar index on Friday climbed to a 1-1/2 week high and closed higher on the increase in U.S. T-note yields, which improves the dollar's interest rate differentials. In addition, there was weakness in EUR/USD which fell to a 1-1/2 week low after ECB Governing Council member Nowotny said there is "no reason" to change the QE policy path, which suggests he is not in favor of tapering QE.

Mar WTI crude oil prices (CLH17 -0.37%) this morning are down -40 cents (-0.74%) and Mar gasoline (RBH17 -0.67%) is -0.0160 (-1.01%). Friday's closes: Mar crude +0.86 (+1.62%), Mar gasoline +0.0194 (+1.24%). Mar crude oil and gasoline on Friday closed higher with Mar gasoline at a 2-week high. Crude oil prices were boosted by signs that OPEC is adhering to its production cut agreement after the IEA said OPEC members implemented 90% of their promised cuts in Jan.