Overnight Markets And News

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ18 +0.37%) this morning are up +0.23% on positive carry-over from a rally in Chinese stocks along with strength in energy stocks with the price of Nov WTI crude oil (CLX18 +0.87%) up +0.61%. European stocks are down -0.47%, led by a sell-off in Italian stocks and a jump in Italian government bond yields, after the European Commission said the Italian coalition government's spending plans were excessive and questioned its budget proposal. Italy's MIB Stock Index is down -1.33% at a 20-month low and the yield on Italy's 10-year government bond soared to a 4-1/2 year high of 3.808% on concern Italy's 2019 budget will be rejected by the EU commission. The commission said it will give the Italian government until Monday to provide an explanation for the "obvious significant deviation" from the rules and reduce its budget deficit target. European stocks were also under pressure from a 7% drop in Michelin after it warned of declining sales in Europe and China in the second half of the year. Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan -0.56%, Hong Kong +0.42%, China +2.58%, Taiwan -0.35%, Australia -0.05%, Singapore -0.23%, South Korea +0.41%, India -1.33%. China's Shanghai Composite had posted a fresh 3-3/4 year low on growth concerns after China Q3 GDP rose at a weaker-than-expected +6.5% y/y pace, the slowest pace of expansion in 9-1/2 years. However, stocks recovered from that 3-3/4 year low and moved higher on signs that state-sponsored funds came in to buy stocks in the last hour of trade. China's top financial officials also tried to shore up confidence in the markets after PBOC Governor Yi Gang said the PBOC is studying measures to ease companies' financing difficulties and will use policy tools to support banks' credit expansion, while Vice Premier Liu He said that Chinese equity valuations had dropped to historically cheap levels.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.04%) is down -0.01%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD +0.17%) is up +0.17%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY+0.30%) is up +0.19%.

Dec 10-year T-note prices (ZNZ18 -0-030) are unchanged.

China Sep industrial production rose +5.8% y/y, weaker than expectations of +6.0% y/y and the slowest pace of increase in nearly 3 years.

China Q3 GDP rose +6.5% y/y, weaker than expectations of +6.6% y/y and the slowest pace of expansion in 9-1/2 years.

China Sep retail sales rose +9.2% y/y, stronger than expectations of +9.0% y/y and the fastest pace of increase in 5 months.

Japan Sep national CPI rose +1.2% y/y, weaker than expectations of +1.3% y/y. Sep national CPI ex fresh food rose +1.0% y/y, right on expectations. Sep national CPI ex fresh food & energy rose +0.4% y/y, right on expectations.

U.S. Stock Preview

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan (non-voter) is keynote speaker at the Shadow Open Market Committee in New York, (2) Sep existing home sales (expected -0.9% to 5.29 million, Aug unch at 5.34 million), (3) Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic (voter) speaks on the economic outlook at an event in Macon, GA, (4) Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan (non-voter) is keynote speaker at a meeting of the Shadow Open Market Committee in New York.

Notable Russell 2000 earnings reports today include: Honeywell (consensus $1.99), State Street (1.88), Procter & Gamble (1.08), Schlumberger (0.45), Interpublic (0.46), SunTrust Banks (1.39), Kansas City Southern (1.57).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.

Equity conferences during the remainder of this week: European Society for Medical Oncology Meeting on Fri.

Market Comments

Dec S&P 500 E-minis (ESZ18 +0.37%) this morning are up +6.25 points (+0.23%). Thursday's closes: S&P 500 -1.44%, Dow Jones -1.27%, Nasdaq 100 -2.23%. The S&P 500 on Thursday closed lower on concern that the deterioration of China's economic outlook will lead to slower global growth after the Shanghai Composite stock index tumbled to a fresh 3-3/4 year low. Home builders and housing stocks fell sharply after Bank of America downgraded the housing sector. Energy stocks fell as crude oil prices fell -1.58% to a 1-month low.

Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ18 -0-030) this morning are unch. Thursday's closes: TYZ8 -5.50, FVZ8 -3.50. Dec 10-year T-notes on Thursday rebounded from a 1-week low and closed higher on positive carry-over from a rally in German bunds to a 2-week high and on the sell-off in U.S. stocks, which boosted the safe-haven demand for T-notes. T-note prices earlier dropped to a 1-week low on negative carry-over from Wednesday's hawkish FOMC meeting minutes where a number of Fed officials said they favored raising the fed funds rate above its neutral level.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.04%) this morning is down -0.005 (-0.01%), EUR/USD (^EURUSD +0.17%) is up +0.0020 (+0.17%), and USD/JPY (^USDJPY +0.30%) is up +0.21 (+0.19%). Thursday's closes: Dollar Index +0.325 (+0.34%), EUR/USD -0.0048 (-0.42%), USD/JPY -0.44 (-0.39%). The dollar index on Thursday rose to a 1-week high and closed higher on weakness in the yuan which fell to a 1-3/4 year low against the dollar and the stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data on weekly jobless claims and the Oct Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey.

Metals prices this morning are higher with Dec gold (GCZ18 +0.07%) +0.2 (+0.02%), Dec silver (SIZ18 +0.38%) +0.026 (+0.18%) and Dec copper (HGZ18 +0.67%) +0.011 (+0.38%). Thursday's closes: Dec gold +2.7 (+0.22%), Dec silver -0.059 (-0.40%), Dec copper -0.0315 (-1.13%). Metals on Thursday settled mixed. Metals prices were undercut by a rally in the dollar index to a 1-week high and by concern that China's deteriorating economic outlook will curb its demand for industrial metals after the Shanghai Composite index dropped to a 3-3/4 year low. Gold moved higher on increased safe-haven demand after stock prices slumped.

Nov WTI crude oil prices (CLX18 +0.87%) this morning are up +42 cents (+0.61%) and Nov gasoline (RBX18 +1.51%) is up +2.54 (+1.34%). Thursday's closes: Nov crude oil -1.10 (-1.58%), Nov gasoline -2.76 (-1.44%). Nov crude oil and gasoline on Thursday closed lower with Nov crude at a 1-month low and Nov gasoline at a 7-month nearest-futures low. Crude oil prices were undercut by the rally in the dollar index to a 1-week high and by negative carry-over from Wednesday's EIA data that showed a +6.49 million bbl increase in EIA crude inventories, well above expectations of +2.5 million bbl.

Overnight U.S. Stock Movers

Walt Disney (DIS -0.81%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Equal-Weight' at Barclays with a price target of $130.

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG -3.80%) rose 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $2.83, better than consensus of $2.67.

Microsoft (MSFT -2.00%) was rated a new 'Outperform' at Wedbush with a price target of $140.

American Express (AXP -1.44%) gained 1% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of $1.88, stronger than consensus of $1.77, and then forecast full-year adjusted EPS of $7.30 to $7.40, above consensus of $7.29.

McDonald's (MCD +0.02%) was rated a new 'Buy' at Gordon Haskett with a price target of $185.

PayPal Holdings (PYPL -3.26%) climbed 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 58 cents, higher than consensus of 54 cents, and then raised guidance on full-year adjusted EPS to 2.38-$2.40 from a prior view of $2.32-$2.35, above consensus of $2.34.

DowDuPont (DWDP -1.66%) fell almost 4% in after-hours trading after the company cut the asset value of its agriculture business by $4.6 billion to reflect weaker markets for its pesticides and seeds.

Celanese (CE -2.59%) rose 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $2.96, higher than consensus of $2.74, and then forecast full-year adjusted EPS of $10.90 to $11.10, above consensus of $10.76.

American International Group (AIG -2.04%) slipped more than 4% in after-hours trading after it said it expects Q3 pre-tax catastrophe losses, net of reinsurance, of approximately $1.5 billion to $1.7 billion.

Bank OZK (OZK -4.34%) sank nearly 20% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 65 cents, well below consensus of 91 cents, as Q3 provision for loan losses jumped to $41.9 million versus $7.8 million y/y.

Skechers USA (SKX -2.14%) rose 6% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 58 cents, better than consensus of 51 cents, and then forecast Q4 EPS of 20 cents to 25 cents, higher than consensus of 18 cents.

ViewRay (VRAY -0.63%) climbed 5% in after-hours trading after it was rated a new 'Outperform' at Baird with a price target of $14.

Limelight Networks (LLNW +2.42%) dropped nearly 8% in after-hours trading after the company reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 3 cents, right on expectations, but a disappointment from its prior view that earnings would be "slightly ahead of expectations."

Akoustis Technologies (AKTS -13.17%) tumbled 14% in after-hours trading after it announced that it intends to offer $30 million of its common stock and $10 million of 6.5% convertible senior notes due 2023 in concurrent underwritten offerings.