Market's Majestic Mountains With Fissures

mdaily-20161114

Over the weekend, Keith and I saw the movie, The Wave. The story, filmed and made in Norway, follows a “what if” scenario.

Over 100 years before, tectonic shifts in the mountains caused an avalanche of rocks to fall into the fjords below. The crashing rocks created a 250 foot tsunami killing over 60 people in 1905. Another 74 people died when it happened again in 1934. (Both true stories).

So happens, the town the tsunami destroyed twice attracts thousands of tourists with its crystal clear lakes and amazing views. In spite of the mountains’ contracting fissures monitored 24/7 by sophisticated technology, you guessed it-here comes tsunami number three! (Fictional).

The night of the election, the market had its own tsunami when it crashed 900 points in a matter of an hour. However, the contracting fissures failed to create an avalanche the next day. In fact, five days later and still no disaster movie.

The market has begun to hum with tourists, whom we can call investors, venturing out in hordes to admire the view.

With its own sophisticated technology monitoring the global markets 24/7, I cannot help but wonder if last Tuesday’s night’s action was a harbinger or an anomaly?

Over the weekend I wrote that “if Biotechnology holds and Retail’s rise is legitimate, this week could bolster confidence exponentially.”

Today, Biotechnology did indeed rise. Not the way Granddad Russell 2000 did mind you. The small cap index made a new all-time high with extremely large volume-the blow off kind of volume.

However, Biotechnology’s greater than average daily volume and not the blow off kind, proves interest grows.

The Retail sector, similar to Biotech in its move up sans Granddad’s fanfare, nevertheless gained another 2%. Retail though, has traded at these prices in August before failing to close out that month positive.

November, only halfway through, should be seasonally strong for retail. That strength must persist not only for the health of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product, but also for the entire market.

So why even concern ourselves with avalanches and tsunamis?

Semiconductors, more sideways than cause for alarm, closed red. Transportation, now overbought, trades into significant resistance levels from 2014. Regional Banks took out the 2007 high of 51.12 intraday, but could not close above that level.

Certain commodities that measure the health of both the domestic and global economies hurt. Cheap oil, for example, is that double edged sword of we like it but many economies that depend on its revenues suffer.

A knee jerk reaction such as the one last Tuesday can be rationalized away later. Yet, the knee jerk reaction still bodes awareness.

In The Wave, one geologist sensed the looming danger only to have his suspicions dismissed by the other experts. Ultimately, the folks of Geiranger had only 10 minutes to get to higher ground once all hell broke loose.

Ordinarily not a avalanche kinda gal, in this case, I do admit a kindred for the film’s rogue geologist.

S&P 500 (SPY) 214.45 now support-key support as it is the 50 DMA. 218 resistance

Russell 2000 (IWM) Blow off volume? I wouldn’t be surprised. 128.30, today’s low now pivotal.

Dow (DIA) I would get concerned if it fails 187.40

Nasdaq (QQQ) 117.30 pivotal resistance and the 50 DMA. 114 support held.

KRE (Regional Banks) Also has blow off type volume and overbought. 50 key support

SMH (Semiconductors) Confirmed the bullish phase making 67.54 pivotal and 69 closest resistance

IYT (Transportation) These crazy volumes and runs to new highs are incredible but not ones to chase now

IBB (Biotechnology) 290 pivotal and 300 big time resistance

XRT (Retail) 44.25-44.40 pivotal area. 46.00 substantial resistance

IYR (Real Estate) Could be a reversal pattern confirmed today. 74.20 good tight spot to hold

GLD (Gold Trust) 115.40 a huge area of support held to a tee

SLV (Silver) 15.60 monthly support

GDX (Gold Miners) I figured the pop would occur-but that did not prove itself as a reversal bottom. Could still do so however

USO (US Oil Fund) I like today’s action. Will keep close eyes here Tuesday

TAN (Solar Energy) Nearly 3 inside days-still has my attention

Disclosure: None. 

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