The short-term trend keeps pushing higher. It has been really impressive. But the best days to buy stocks are early in the trend, and we are past that point. Now, I think we just have to sit back and wait.

On the weekly chart, we are just entering into the overbought range. I know these momentum indicators are simplistic and can't really pick the top of a trend. But they do a decent job of suggesting when it is time to resist new purchases and just hold and wait.

I have been watching the Semiconductor stocks on the assumption that when they roll over, the general market will follow. This stock does look to me as though it may be topping out at this point.

Rates

What is this spreadsheet telling us?

Fixed Income and high yield ETFs are not leaders at the moment, and haven't been for awhile. Plus, there is no indication that they will start to lead anytime soon.

TLT is dead last on the list and this is a good sign for the general stock market, and perhaps gives some hope for the inflation assets.

The Leader List

Strong: Consumer, Financials, Small Caps, Materials, Dividends, Mid Caps, Energy, Retail
Weak: Health Care, Bonds, Utilities
Interesting: Home Construction

Small caps have a strong trend developing after spending months in a very sloppy pattern.

Dividend stocks are quietly showing some strength.

Bonds were hit hard breaking down beneath the 50-day.

Outlook

John Murphy has pointed out that it has been a year since the market has experienced a 5% correction so it is overdue for a pullback. He also mentioned that we are entering the risky time of the year for market corrections.
 

The long-term outlook is positive.
The medium-term trend is up.
The short-term trend is up as of July-12. Watching for signs of a short-term peak.