Market Overview - Thursday, July 6

Based on the PMO index, the market has been oversold on a short-term basis for a number of days. The indicator was showing a little strength yesterday, but now it is pointed lower again. So a short-term rally is probably off the table until this index starts to turn higher again.

The Small Caps sold off along with the market. This is not a very good looking chart, but while the small caps were above the 50-day, it was hard to bet against the broader market. Now, the bears have a chance.

Junk bonds are under resistance, but so far they haven't sold off much.

The Semiconductors were one of the few groups that didn't sell off today, and, to me, this chart really doesn't look too bad. It looks like the chart closed a gap that dated back to early May. This sure looks a lot better than the chart of the small caps.

The Dow Theory chart still looks promising for the bulls although I would like to see a weekly close above the Mar-01 high.

The Leader List

There was some weakness today within the leaders. Taking a hit were the Industrials, Pharmaceuticals, Dow, Emerging Markets... and the S&P500. They can't go up everyday.

Dropped from the leaders were the REITs and the Inverse VIX. I'm surprised they lasted on the leader list as long as they did.

The Inverse Volatility ETF broke its uptrend today.

Outlook

The long-term outlook is positive.
The medium-term trend is down.
The short-term trend is down.

Disclaimer: I am not a registered investment advisor. My comments above reflect my view of the market, and what I am doing with my accounts. The analysis is not a recommendation to buy, ...

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