Written by Gary

Premarket numbers were up +1.2% as the BOJ expanded their QE and investors jumped on board the bull train. Look for a spike on the charts and one in volume to signal a temporary market top.

By 10 am the opening market numbers could not be held as some VERY nervous investors decide to jump ship, but that doesn't mean the market ascent is over. Watch out for volatility that could wipe out your stops.

Investors need to be especially cautious at this point because of herd mentality:

1. It is generally expected to have some sort of small correction before the SC rally.

2. Technical's are converging on key resistance points that need to be tested and that sometime creates 'wind-up' decline before moving ahead.

Don't let anyone fool you, but the markets are in fragile shape and the only thing holding them up is the leftover liquidity from QE's as I explained last July here. BOJ's expanding their QE is miniscule compared to the big picture and any investor euphoric 'bump' upwards in the US markets is NOT going to last for long.

In fact, it may already be over as the opening numbers didn't hold, but these high marks may be temporarily on hold as the markets adjust. I would like nothing more to see a small correction now so the SC rally becomes a fact.

For those that are confused, I am saying several things that may or may not happen, but from a technical point of view would be optimal. First I want to see a small decline now. Second, I want to see a Santa Claus rally. Third I see the markets declining in 2015, How much, well that depends of course on a whole boatload of factors that are dynamic in nature and we will have to wait.

Our medium term indicators are leaning towards sell portfolio of non-performersat the opening and the short-term market direction meter is bearish. We remain mostly, at best, negative and conservatively bullish, neutral in other words. The important DMA's, volume and a host of other studies have now turned and may be enough for some to start shorting. Right now now I am getting very concerned any downtrend could get more aggressive in the short-term and volatility may also promote sudden reversals. The SP500 MACD has turned up, but remains above zero at +8.57. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period and I hope you have returned your 'dogs' to the pound.

Having some cash on hand now is not a bad strategy as market changes are happening everyday. As of now, I do not see any leading indicators that are warning of a 'long-term' reversal in the near-term. There may be one later in 2015, but any market fluctuations we see now are more of a internal market rectification than a bear market.

Investing.com members' sentiments are 52 % Bearish (falling from 70% and now rising from 33%) and it seems to be a good sign for being bearish. The 'Sheeples' always seem to get it wrong.

Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 46.0 % bullish with the status at BearCorrection. (Chart Here ) I expect a market reversal at or before ~25.0 should the direction continue to descend.

StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at 67.72. (Chart Here) But anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. (Now were are high enough to descend again - watch out!)

StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) is at53.40 %. (Chart Here) The downside decent has reversed, but will it continue to rise above 50%? The next support is ~37.00, ~25.00 and ~15.00 below that. December, 2011 was the last time we saw numbers in the 20's.

StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) is at 49.73. (Chart Here) Below support zone but rising. Next stop was ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. We are seriously below 44 and need a reversal pronto as it looks like there is nothing to stop the fall until 25 and taking the markets with it.

StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) is at 59.60. (Chart Here) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction.

StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) is at 23.25. (Chart Here)

StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) is at 68.09. (Chart Here)

StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) is at 10,789. (Chart Here) We are above the resistance (10,301) but is this a test of the next resistance at ~10600/700, watch to see if these numbers decline back down. Next stop down is 9750, then 9250, and 8500.

The following article has some interesting arguments for why the market have and have not topped.

The longer 6 month outlook is now 30-70 sell (probably should be 20-80 sell) and will remain bearish until we can see what the effects are in the Fed's game plan.Sooner or later brighter skies will return over the market. Until then, investors should employ the first thing one learns while in a foxhole; keep their head down.

The DOW at 10:15 is at 17334 up 138 or 0.80%.

The SP500 is at 2011 up 17 or 0.83%.

SPY is at 201.18 up 2 or 0.89%.

The $RUT is at 1169 up 14 or 1.17%.

NASDAQ is at 4624 up 58 or 1.26%.

NASDAQ 100 is at 4152 up 53 or 1.28%.

$VIX 'Fear Index' is at 14.40 down 0.12 or -0.83%. Bullish to Neutral Movement

The longer trend is up, the past months trend is net positive, the past 5 sessions have been positive and the current bias is elevated and trending sideways.

WTI oil is trading between 81.26 (resistance) and 79.56 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading up at 79.70. (Chart Here)

Brent Crude is trading between 86.24 (resistance) and 84.60 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading up at 84.72. (Chart Here)

Gold fell from 1202.58 earlier to 1160.93 and is currently trading down at 1165.90. The current intra-session trend is negative. (Chart Here)

Dr. Copper is at 3.053 falling from 3.093 earlier. (Chart Here)

The US dollar is trading between 87.20 and 86.25 and is currently trading up at 87.08, the bias is currently positive. (Chart Here) Resistance made in Aug., 2013 (~85.00) has been broken and now is support. This support has gotten much stronger since August, 2014 and isn't likely to fall easily.

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