Market Commentary: DOW In Red, Volume Anemic, Small Caps Doing Well

Written by Gary

Noontime stats are very quiet for the most part and would advise caution. Volume has fallen to anemic levels, major averages are STILL below supports and 200 DMA's. DOW is in the red, small caps OK, but Investors remain uneasy.

By noon the $VIX is melting down (bullish) and the averages 'appear' to be trading sideways - market direction remain unsure. Now is the time to be cautious and employ a wait and see attitude.

Our medium term indicators are leaning towards sell portfolio of non-performersat the midday and the short-term market direction meter is bearish. We remain mostly, at best, negative and conservatively bullish. The important DMA's, volume and a host of other studies have now turned and may be enough for some to start shorting. Right now now I am getting very concerned the current downtrend will get more aggressive in the short-term and volatility may promote sudden reversals. The SP500 MACD has turned up, but remains below zero at -28.04. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period and I hope you have returned your 'dogs' to the pound. Having some cash on hand now is not a bad strategy.

Looking at the weekly charts it appears we have another 2% to 3% more to go (revised daily) before we hit the up-trend line from 2009. The DOW is currently at~16343 and the intersecting up-trend is at 15744 (and rising), the SP500 still has a way to go to the 1700 level, NASDAQ at the 3750 level and the $RUT at the 1010 level marks the 2009 uptrend. Just a couple of serious down session would mark a good point for a reversal.

Investing.com members' sentiments are 34 % Bearish (falling from 70%) and it seems to be a good sign for being bearish. The 'Sheeples' always seem to get it wrong.

Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 38.2 % bullish with the status at BearConfirmed. (Chart Here ) I expect a market reversal at or before ~25.0.

StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) is at 39.61. (Chart Here) Below support zone and apparently going further down. Next stop was ~57 and now it is ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. We are seriously below 44 and need a reversal pronto as it looks like there is nothing to stop the fall until 25 and taking the markets with it.

StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) is at 41.60. (Chart Here) In support zone and falling - doesn't look good. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. The next stop now is ~37.00.

StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) is at 21.90. (Chart Here)

StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at +10.16. (Chart Here)But anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. (Now were in good shape to descend again - watch out!)

StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) is at 64.46. (Chart Here)

StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) is at34.76 %. (Chart Here) Unless this downward trend reverses itself soon, we are going to see further downside. The next support is ~37.00, ~25.00 and ~15.00 below that. December, 20012 was the last time we saw numbers this low.

StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) is at 10276. (Chart Here) Next stop is 9750, then 9250, and 8500.

The DOW at 12:00 is at 16344 down 36 or -0.22%.

The SP500 is at 1894 up 7 or 0.39%.

SPY is at 189.36 up 0.85 or 0.44%.

The $RUT is at 1090 up 8 or 0.71%.

NASDAQ is at 4286 up 28 or 0.65%.

NASDAQ 100 is at 3840 up 25 or 0.66%.

$VIX 'Fear Index' is at 19.64 down 2.35 or -10.82%Bullish Movement

The longer trend is up, the past months trend is down, the past 5 sessions have been negative and the current bias is net neutral.

WTI oil is trading between 82.73 (resistance) and 80.81 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading up at 81.40(Chart Here)

Brent Crude is trading between 86.66 (resistance) and 84.44 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading up at 85.05(Chart Here)

Gold rose from 1235.00 earlier to 1249.00 and is currently trading down at 1245.00. The current intra-session trend is elevated and sideways(Chart Here)

Dr. Copper is at 2.977 falling from 3.017 earlier. (Chart Here)

The US dollar is trading between 85.46 and 85.13 and is currently trading up at 85.19, the bias is currently sideways, volatile and trending down(Chart Here) Resistance made in Aug., 2013 (~85.00) has been broken and now is support.

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