Tensions on the tape seem mild contrasted to tension in the real world. Russia 'says' they'll be willing to discuss 'any facts' relating to allegations; presumably reacting to the 'bombshell indictment' against Russian officials mostly in the GRU intelligence unit; but high enough that no such political penetration attacks would have been authorized without Putin knowing.

International terrorism; cyber-war; nuclear proliferation; disengagement of Russia and US Forces from Syria; what to do about Iran refusing to depart incidentally; and even the pipeline across the Baltics into Germany.. all of these and more are important topics the Presidents presumably will tackle.

Overall, such dialog has more support among our Allies than perhaps our domestic politicians; but  'trade' is really the 3rd horseman of the trio we have to monitor for upcoming and very key behavior of the stock markets (and currency markets too). Notice that Sec'y. of State Pompeo is not going to the Helsinki Summit; and is in Mexico with Jared Kushner for initial talks with the incoming Government. Everyone seems to have overlooked this; as in reality 'trade' is what can move markets more so than lots of the very polarized chaos surrounding Washington and the Russians.  

I sort of compared 'Three Horsemen of the Apocalypse' with polarized views of this world out there; again with Trade being in the center. The two political extremes (with news reporting that often is anything but balanced on both sides) tend to conflict with the facts in the center; or are oblivious to what really matters, which includes but is not limited to tension-relief.

Several days ago I mentioned watching 'events' rather than media or even political hyperbole. For instance, Trump, usually stirring-up a storm and of course then calming it later (England was a perfect example; tempest in a 'teacup' by the time it was over); is unusually tepid with regard to Russia. A few on both sides of the aisle are calling for cancelling the Summit; very similar to what they said before the North Korean Singapore Summit. Only history will tell whether the talks were wise or not. There is hardly a doubt that Russia attacked the United States political system; these battle-lines debating Obama's inaction (it occurred under his watch and Intelligence at the time did know some of it apparently) or Trump's seeming cozening-up to Putin; although we don't really know how Putin will respond (usually not well) to being confronted sternly; should Trump even be willing to do so.      

Overall it's tense; but after the Summit, all eyes may focus on trade and on China again. That presumes the Summit itself isn't something that creates greater tension; but rather defuses it. Restarting some progress towards a 'rapprochement' with Moscow; even if lots of DC politicians would prefer to stoke or aggravate economic, military and political risks. That may be why some say they'll be happy with the 'status quo' remaining. And fewer really would like to see favorable moves on moving to rebuild global harmony. It is ironic that many so-called progressives agitate for hostilities instead; to the point of demanding counterattacks after Russia's cyber-intrusions. And if the Russians don't cooperate adequate (just constant denials); we might get to that point (some urge it already). Trump believes it's better to talk. 

Overall: market conditions are little changed. I'd be thrilled if we got trade deals (not out of the blue; but I'm not ignoring Mexico's discussions right now); and then or for other reasons, the markets were to spike higher; providing a lower-risk opportunity to fade strength. For now it's unclear as to whether this exhausts itself or simply persists; either way slightly higher levels seem probable for the moment at least, barring new bombshells.   

The biggest story Friday isn't broadly grasped yet; although it's still just a 'possibility. And it's Amazon becoming competitive in Networking (they are addressing networking 'switches'); which would undercut current prices by competitors; and companies like Cisco. Amazon Web Services already is, but the competitive landscape changes if they really forge ahead.     

That move (leveraging their existing cannibalization of other industries) at some point if they do it, is a more valid invitation for 'antitrust' exploration than the (perhaps absurd) appellate effort by the DoJ against AT&T. (And of course on that keep in mind that our buy area of AT&T was 29-31 after the merger. And even before we were generally bearish from 40 on down.

So in our view the shares had their 20%+ decline. Also while surprising, all the chatter about it combines with the 'reallocation' awareness; hence the idea of scaling-into AT&T (for those who want) between 29-31 and then in the Fall, either at higher or lower prices as may prevail in months ahead.  

In sum: the risk of heavy tariffs includes 'cost-push inflation' resulting from sluggish economic activity amidst higher prices on goods. Opening salvos show a serious 'will'; while we see the legal step of investigating Chinese practices; and while we believe staff level discussions on a path to calm all these waters are quietly going on. It's tricky however and a hint is provided by China's soft responses this week to the latest round of explicit tariffs.

Presuming we get thru the Helsinki Summit with either status-quo or ideal movements towards better understanding (and serious realization by the Russians of NATO and American determination to prevent expansions to the West); the focus turns back to trade and tariffs.   

There are also new protests in Iran; some of which are attacking oil offices and Tehran Airport. Some foreign company evacuations are being ordered as a potential new crisis escalates. This could push Oil higher once again. 

Conclusion: anticipate prospects of a return to S&P market volatility over weeks ahead. Summer and Fall patterns evolve from the ragged series of 'rinse & repeat' cycles, prevailing as forecast since looking for the huge early February break from January's unsustainable parabolic move.