Market Bees Prefer To Fly Fast Than Hover

mdaily20160824

If you feel like a bee hovering over a plethora of pollen yet undecided as to which flower to suck upon, say hello to how many traders must have felt during today’s market rally.

After the cautionary tale about an impending collapse brought to us from Billionaire Bears such as Icahn and Paul Tudor Jones, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 made yet another new all-time high.

The Russell 2000 cleared a 52-week high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average though, did not.

With so much to choose from and so little time before Ms. Yellen speaks at Jackson Hole on August 26th, should we feast upon the new high nectar or wait to pollinate?

Will us trader bees go on to produce honey and beeswax or will we wind up in somebody’s kitchen victim of their fly swatter?

Examining the key U.S. economic sectors, Retail busted out of the recent consolidation. Last swing high was in April 2015 when it peaked at 146.50.

Transportation did not fare as well. Although it started out strong, by the end of the day IYT closed within the recent trading range going back since early August.

Regional Banks (KRE) have yet to take out 2016 highs. Nonetheless, KRE had the highest closing price since June. The Big Banks ETF (XLF), which made a new 2016 high early today, closed matching the price posted on August 9th.

Bees tend to visit the same patches of flowers every day as long as they continue to find nectar and pollen. Then, they take their bounty back to the nest and deposit the harvest for storage. However, they only store enough for a few days. That leaves them much more vulnerable to food shortages.

If you are counting on the action in interest rates, today the Long Treasury Bonds (TLT) gave you no real buzz. Although holding the 50 daily moving average at 138.80, each rally since the peak on July 8th has made lower highs. Naturally, this can all change rapidly once the next move by the Fed becomes more obvious.

The Bears believe that the market may only have a little bit more nectar left from the monetary policy flower to suck from. Therefore, the Bulls must stay on the lookout for a fresh bouquet.

S&P 500 (SPY) Cleared 219.50 by .10 and then drifted lower.Must hold 217. 220 was my target so we shall see

Russell 2000 (IWM) I’d be calling a top if it weren’t for this. New 52-week high. Has more room to 129-130

Dow (DIA) Has to clear 186.88 to keep going and hold 185 area on a closing basis

Nasdaq (QQQ) Cleared 117.97 by a few ticks then drifted lower. 116 support

XLF (Financials23.90 area is pivotal support.

KRE (Regional Banks) 42.00 big resistance and next point to clear. 40 key support

SMH (Semiconductors) Meanwhile, sister smh still chugs along higher and higher-and many see a tech bubble like in 2000.

IYT (Transportation) Must hold 141.25 and get to 144.41

IBB (Biotechnology290 key support and needs to get back over 300

XRT (Retail) 46.50 is the place to clear. 45 support

ITB (US Home Construction) Featured this Sunday after 2 inside days last week. Man, did that pay off if you were paying attention

GLD (Gold Trust) Range of 127.20-129.26 to break

SLV (Silver) confirmed warning phase

GDX (Gold Miners) 28.95 major support

USO (US Oil Fund) 11.35 the weekly MA to clear

XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) 36.50 support held perfectly today with an ensuing rally.

TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) 21.24 the 50 DMA

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries138.80 the 50 DMA which it’s been above since June 1.

GREK (Greece) If gets through 7.50 time to pay attention

Disclosure: None.

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