Look Both Ways: Interest Rates, Gold And The Market

The photo was taken as we were crossing over Railroad tracks.

Most of us walk looking down. Perfectly logical to paint a sign on the ground that reminds folks to look UP both ways. Particularly when crossing train tracks.

This week, we have examined gold and gold miners.

We have also reviewed the Megatrends that influence society and the markets.

Today’s message of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate rise by ¼% also reminds investors to look both ways.

The Fed justified the raise by stating the economy is on solid ground. They predict lower unemployment rates yet with one huge variable-wages have not and most likely will not escalate any time soon.

Ditto with core inflation levels.

The Fed targets 2% inflation growth.  The struggle to hit that number dates back years.

This engendered the Fed to also state that although they just made it more expensive for folks to borrow money, weak inflation remains a concern.

Sure, gold fell hard from its intraday highs after the Fed announcement.

Nevertheless, when analyzing where interest rate sensitive gold could be heading, isn’t it still prudent to look both ways?

Today’s top headlines tragically align with my number 3 Megatrend from the top 10-Domestic Violence.

Gold and miners initially rose based on two separate incidents of gun violence. Then, the Fed put the kibosh on that rally.

Stocks also fell with some members of the Modern Family more impacted than others.

Sister Semiconductors, in response to what started last Friday, lost more ground.

Regional banks, which should have found relief from the Fed’s announcement, failed to.

Look both ways. Higher rates good. More cost for folks to borrow money, bad.

Besides, the 20+ Year Treasury Bond rates fell represented by the 1.5% gain in TLTs. An anomaly? Look both ways.

Biotechnology remained green. The most speculated of the family, IBB dropped a bit from the intraday highs. However, specs did look both ways. IBB has promise should it hold over 292.

The Russell 2000 continues to stall under the monthly channel I featured on Sunday. Yet, it found support at the fast-moving average 140.25. With 140 pivotal, so far so good.

Transportation broke the elusive 170 level. It too held the fast MA at 168.65.

Surprisingly, the struggling Retail sector managed to maintain a price over 41.00.

Overall, the price movements of the Modern Family confirm that the sector rotation from tech to more domestic growth was shaken but not stirred by the Fed.

Where does that leave gold and today’s unfortunate acts of violence?

Gold’s volume, over double the daily average, elucidates how quickly weaker longs liquidate.

Recently added to the list of Megatrends, gold and gold miners are sensitive to geopolitical turmoil. Both are hedges should alternative currencies continue their tear.

Today’s action did not change my mind about the threatening future of big banks. Or about turmoil and violence.

Looking only one way when the train is coming from the other direction can blindside.

S&P 500 (SPY) 244.50 pivotal. Looks good above. Under 242 see 240.

Russell 2000 (IWM) With a monthly channel top at 142-143 level, Friday tested that top. The month is young. Either this takes a bigger lead, or that was it-party over.

Dow (DIA) New highs again

Nasdaq (QQQ) 136.85 the 50 DMA support. Has to clear 142.

KRE (Regional Banks) 56.00 pivotal with 53.50 the underlying support

SMH (Semiconductors81.92 the 50 DMA. Has to clear 86.70.

IYT (Transportation) Resistance all the way up to 172.89. Now, 170 pivotal. 168 a key support area

IBB (Biotechnology) 291-292 must hold and the elusive 300 must clear.

XRT (Retail) 41.00 pivotal and 42 the overhead 50-DMA

IYR (Real Estate) Held all the moving averages but still in massive consolidation between 77 and 81.

XLU (Utilities) 53.25 area near-term support.

GLD (Gold Trust) 119.85 the underlying 50-DMA marginally broke. Unconfirmed warning phase

GDX (Gold Miners) Converging Moving averages overhead so wouldn’t give up yet if this can clear over 23.30

USO (US Oil Fund) Big volume down day. Through 9.65 would at least cover if short

TAN (Solar Energy) 18.40 should now hold-also today’s low

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) Unconfirmed accumulation day. 126 pivotal. 127.35 resistance, 124 support

UUP (Dollar Bull) 25.10 pivotal

Disclosure: None.

How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.