Large Cap Best And Worst Report - October 7, 2014

Since 2010, our top scoring weekly has outpaced the SPX by 339 bps in the following year. The best performers from our list one year ago are MU up 89%, RCL up 86%, and X up 74%.

  • Healthcare is the top scoring large cap sector.
  • The highest scoring large cap industry is railroads.

The average large cap score across our universe is 62.20, below the four week moving average score of 62.45. The avearge large cap stock is trading -12.27% below its 52 week high, -0.40% below its 200 dma, has 5.33 days to cover held short, and is expected to post EPS growth of 13.09% next year.

Healthcare, services, financials, consumer goods, and technology score above average this week. Industrial goods, utilities, and basic materials should be underweight.

The following table breaks out the seasonally strongest large cap stocks for the fourth quarter. All of these stocks have posted gains in 9 or 10 of the past 10 Q4's.

The top scoring large cap industry is railroads (KSU, CSX, UNP, NSC). Carload volume (particularly intermodal) continues to support railcar rates. Wholesale drug (MCK, ABC, CAH) demand benefits from generic fill growth, Medicaid expansion, and exchange enrollment. Pipeline (WMB) capacity growth supports dividend upside. Internet information providers (YHOO, FB, EXPE, NTES) continue to enjoy ad revenue growth as mobile monetization improves. Rising volatility supports trading volume at investment brokers (SCHW, AMTD, GS), while overall market upside supports AUM fee revenue.

In large cap basics, only pipelines score above average. In consumer goods, buy processed & packaged goods (GMCR, MJN, CAG), textiles (NKE, VFC, UA, PVH, HBI), and major food (ADM). Investment brokers, credit services (MCO, DFS), and P&C insurers (WRB, CINF, CB, ALL) are best across financials. The top healthcare industries include medical instruments (COV, BDX, XRAY, BAX), healthcare plans (WLP, UNH), and biotech (GILD, REGN, CELG, BMRN). In industrial goods, only aerospace/defense (GD, TDG, BA) score above average. Rails, wholesale drugs, and restaurants (BKW, CMG, DRI) offer upside in services. The top technology groups are Internet information, technical & system software (INFY, ADSK, CNQR), and diversified communication (CCI).

 

Disclosure: None.

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