June Retail Sales: Up 0.5% MoM, As Expected
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for June was released this morning. Headline sales came in at 0.5% month-over-month to one decimal and was at the Investing.com consensus. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at 0.39% MoM (to two decimals). Revisions were made to April and May figures.
Here is the introduction from today's report:
Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June 2018, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $506.8 billion, an increase of 0.5 percent (±0.4 percent) from the previous month, and 6.6 percent (±0.5 percent) above June 2017. Total sales for the April 2018 through June 2018 period were up 5.9 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The April 2018 to May 2018 percent change was revised from up 0.8 percent (±0.5 percent) to up 1.3 percent (±0.2 percent).
Retail trade sales were up 0.3 percent (±0.5 percent)* from May 2018, and 6.4 percent (±0.5 percent) above last year. Gasoline Stations were up 21.6 percent (±1.6 percent) from June 2017, while Nonstore Retailers were up 10.2 percent (±1.4 percent) from last year. [view full report]
The chart below is a log-scale snapshot of retail sales since the early 1990s. The two exponential regressions through the data help us to evaluate the long-term trend of this key economic indicator.
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The year-over-year percent change provides another perspective on the historical trend. Here is the headline series.
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Core Sales
Here is the year-over-year version of Core Retail Sales.
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"Control" Purchases
The next two charts illustrate retail sales "Control" purchases, which is an even more "Core" view of retail sales. This series excludes Motor Vehicles & Parts, Gasoline, Building Materials as well as Food Services & Drinking Places. The popular financial press typically ignores this series, but it a more consistent and reliable reading of the economy.
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Here is the same series year-over-year. Note that the current level is above both highlighted values at the start of recessions since the inception of this series in the early 1990s.
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For a better sense of the reduced volatility of the "Control" series, here is a YoY overlay with the headline retail sales.
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Bottom Line: June sales showed an increase month over month and were at forecasts. When FRED publishes their data, we'll take a closer look at Real Retail Sales.