The Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey significantly declined but remains in expansion. Key elements also significantly declined.

Analyst Opinion of the Philly Fed Business Outllook Survey

Consider this a much weaker report than last month as key elements significantly declined.

This is a very noisy index which readers should be reminded is sentiment based. The Philly Fed historically is one of the more negative of all the Fed manufacturing surveys but has been more positive than the others recently.

The index moved from +34.4 to +19.9 Positive numbers indicate market expansion, negative numbers indicate contraction. The market expected (from Nasdaq / Econoday) 20.0 to 33.1 (consensus +28.0).

Results from the June Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest continued expansion of the region's manufacturing sector. All the broad indicators remained positive, although the indicators for general activity and new orders fell notably. The firms continued to report higher prices for purchased inputs and their own manufactured goods. Expectations for the next six months continued to moderate but remain positive overall.

Current Indicators Suggest Continuing Growth

The diffusion index for current general activity remained positive but decreased 15 points this month (see Chart 1). Almost 37 percent of the manufacturers reported increases in overall activity this month, while 17 percent reported decreases. The new orders index fell nearly 23 points this month. While 38 percent of the firms reported an increase in orders, 20 percent reported declines. The current shipments index increased 3 points. The unfilled orders index suggested that firms' backlogs diminished: The index fell 18 points and registered its first negative reading (-2.7) since January. The delivery times index remained positive but fell 9 points to its lowest reading in four months.

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Econintersect believes the important elements of this survey are new orders and unfilled orders . New orders declined but remained in expansion whilst unfilled orders declined and is now in contraction.

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This index has many false recession warnings.

Summary of all Federal Reserve Districts Manufacturing:

Richmond Fed (hyperlink to reports):

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Kansas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

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Dallas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

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Philly Fed (hyperlink to reports):

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New York Fed (hyperlink to reports):

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Federal Reserve Industrial Production - Actual Data (hyperlink to report):

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Holding this and other survey's Econintersect follows accountable for their predictions, the following graph compares the hard data from Industrial Products manufacturing subindex (dark blue bar) and US Census manufacturing shipments (lighter blue bar) to the Philly Fed survey (yellow bar).

In the above graphic, hard data is the long bars, and surveys are the short bars. The arrows on the left side are the key to growth or contraction.

Caveats on the use of Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey:

This is a survey, a quantification of opinion - not facts and data. Surveys lead hard data by weeks to months, and can provide early insight into changing conditions. Econintersect finds they do not necessarily end up being consistent compared to hard economic data that comes later, and can miss economic turning points.

This survey is very noisy - and recently showed recessionary conditions. And it is understood from 3Q2011 GDP that the economy was expanding even though this index was in contraction territory. On the positive side, it hit the start and finish of the 2007 recession exactly.

No survey is accurate in projecting employment - and the Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey is no exception. Although there are some general correlation in trends, month-to-month movements have not correlated with the BLS Service Sector Employment data.

Over time, there is a general correlation with real business data - but month-to-month conflicts are frequent.