Is This Rally Evermore?

Last week a story went viral about a goth girl in London who rode the tube with a leashed Raven on her lap.

That image inspired many readers to write variations of Edgar Allen Poe’s The Raven.

My Homage to Poe:

“Once upon a market cheery,
While I trade so cavalieri,
Tis some analyst who feels leery,
Tapping on the Exchange door.
Quoth the Pundit -Nevermore!”

The above photo is our messenger Raven from earlier last week. Above his head is the passing train.

In Greek mythology, Ravens are associated with Apollo, the god of prophecy.

Is our Raven, with his wise expression, prophesying that a passing train implies this rally is nevermore or evermore?

Evidence for Evermore

A chart of US Weekly Leading Index Data shows a current level of 144.44 up from 135.85 (6.33%) one year ago.

The charts for the S&P 500, Nasdaq and the Dow show price consolidation marginally below all-time highs.

SPY is set up for a new runaway gap. Nasdaq had one on April 24th.

Transportation, a Modern Family essential to gauge economic sentiment, improved its phase to unconfirmed bullish. If confirms, IYT joins his already bullish siblings Biotechnology and Semiconductors.

Retail, although languishing in a Recovery phase, is languishing in a Recovery phase-not a Bearish one.

Optimism prevails in Europe that the French vote on Sunday results in a Macron win. The Euro ended the week in an Accumulation Phase. Many overseas ETFs, especially EWQ, roared higher.

Evidence for Nevermore

The Russell 2000 closed slightly red for the week. IWM needs to move away from the ever-so-close 50 daily moving average with gusto.

Interest rate yields, despite the hawkish tone, held onto its 50 DMA. Regional Banks, another Family sib, closed red and in a Warning Phase.

Although commodities recovered somewhat off the weekly lows on Friday, oil, gold, and agriculturals sharply declined.

The French could still defy the polls and vote in Le Pen.

If this is the final stage of the Five Stages of Disbelief, the Bears have only begun to throw in the towel and go long. The retail and private investors continue to buy in already crowded bullish instruments.

Surely, the economy is running hot. The Final Stage typically harvests extreme exuberance before disdain sets in.

Several important administrative policies are at risk of not passing or at risk of passing, depending where one sits.

“And it came to pass at the end of forty days, that Noah opened the window of the ark which he had made. And he sent forth a Raven, and it went forth to and fro, until the waters were dried up from off the earth.” Genesis 8:6

S&P 500 (SPY) Sideways 239-240 resistance looks like it could turn into a launchpad if all goes well. 237.70 key support

Russell 2000 (IWM) 140 pivotal. 141.50 to clear and 136.70 to hold

Dow (DIA) Resistance at 210-212. 207.66 support

Nasdaq (QQQ) New-high close

KRE (Regional Banks) If clears 55.40 better. 53.68 should hold if good

SMH (Semiconductors80.00 super pivotal. Through 81 new highs

IYT (Transportation) 161.50 support and through 166 much better

IBB (Biotechnology) Needs to hold 294.25 and clear 300

XRT (Retail) 43.83 the 200 DMA and 42.40 key support

GLD (Gold Trust) Quiet inside day. 115.55-116 in focus. Looks better over 118.00

XME (S&P Metals and Mining) Had a reversal and cleared longer term MAs. Now, must keep going over the 200 DMA

USO (US Oil Fund) Inside day with decent close

XOP (Oil & Gas Exploration) Possible reversal pattern

TAN (Solar Energy) Next clearance of 18 worth a probe.

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) 120.77 to 120.17 support held. Then, 118 next. Resistance 122.50

Disclosure: None.

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