Monday, February 15, 2016 4:21 AM EDT
Copper has lost 56% of its value since it peaked in 2011. That is not as bad as crude oil, but it remains a serious collapse.
The largest copper miner Freeport-McMoRan (symbol FCX) has truly crashed in this environment. The stock price went from $50 in 2011 to $3.50 in January of this year, a 93% decline. That is an serious crash.
Is this a buying opportunity from a contrarian point of view?
In order to answer that question, we looked into the hidden trendlines on the secular chart. The chart below shows the hidden trendlines in purple. According to our methodology, hidden trendlines connect extreme swing lows or highs, and, by doing so, attribute secular value to them.
There are 5 important hidden trendlines we have identified on Freeport’s chart. As seen on the chart, Freeport’s lows of $3.50 coincided with the last of those 5 hidden trendlines.
Should we conclude that the downside target of FCX is reached? We believe so. Even as spot copper could continue its decline, FCX should respect its bottom at $3.50.
(Click on image to enlarge)
CONCLUSION:
Yes we believe FCX is a screaming buy between $4 and $5 per share. A stop loss should be set below $4.
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