If The Year Ended Today…

It’s only May 25, but if the year ended today…

1) It would be a pretty good one for global equities, with the median country up 15.8%. Out of 45 country ETFs in the table below, 10 are up more than 20%, 31 are up more than 10%, and only 3 are negative.

2) For the first time since 2012, global equities (ACWX) would outperform U.S. stocks (SPY).

3) In a surprise to many, Mexico (EWW) would finish up close to 20% versus a loss of nearly 9% for Russia (ERUS).

4) At 9.99, the Volatility Index (VIX) would end the year lower than 99.9% of historical readings.

5) At 7.1%, the annualized volatility in the S&P 500 would be the 3rd lowest on record.

6) At 4, the number of daily moves in the S&P 500 of 1% or more would be the fewest in history outside of 1964.

7) Those who went long volatility (VXX) in the hopes of catching the next black swan would get crushed again.

8) The S&P 500 (SPY), Dow (DIA), and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) would be positive for the 9th consecutive year.

9) The 9 straight years of gains in the S&P 500 would tie the record from 1991-1999.

10) The Maximum Drawdown on a closing basis of 2.8% in the S&P 500 would be the lowest since 1995.

11) 9 out of 10 sectors would finish positive, with Technology (XLK) leading the way, finally surpassing its prior peak from back in March 2000.

Yes indeed – if the year ended today it would be a pretty good one for global equity investors.

Will it look better or worse on December 31st? I have no idea. But it will look different.

Disclaimer: At Pension Partners, we use Bonds as our defensive position in our absolute return strategies for all of the above reasons. Bonds have provided a more ...

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