If I Only Had A Hi-Tech, Fuel-Injected, AAA Heart!
This tinman recycled from old oil cans and drums evokes several reactions.
My first thought goes to Semiconductors. The sister in the Modern Family, SMH has worked exhaustively to keep their spirits up.
In fact, today’s intraday high (73.48) is above the 6-month January calendar range high. SMH ultimately closed just shy of that number.
Today’s price action suggests that SMH, working to negate the more ominous topping pattern it had on December 28th, holds a very important role in how the market plays out from here.
My second thought goes to junk. We caught the initial move up in JNK or the BB Barclays High Yield Bonds early in 2016. Currently, JNK consolidates near the 2017 highs.
One more thrust and JNK can turn to treasure.
My third thought goes to oil. Like the beginning of 2016, USO is in a Recovery Phase on the weekly charts (above the 50-week moving average).
In 2016, that phase did not last very long. Here in 2017, the jury on the phase withstanding remains undecided.
Can this recycled tinman find the heart to transform its rusty drums into ones that beat?
In the Wizard of Oz, we find out that the Tinman’s tenderness means he already has a heart.
Hence, Sister Semiconductors has the ability and the power to offer the Tinman what he really needs-Artificial Intelligence through chip technology.
Looking at the oil market, it too has the ability and the power to sustain the Recovery Phase if OPEC sticks to the deal.
However, we must not also overlook a more somber reason for oil’s potential to skyrocket. Should disturbances in the Middle East increase, the whole market landscape could change.
Regardless, from a technical standpoint, a move over 12.00 in USO seems like the best indicator for more upside.
Barclays Capital High Yield Bond ETF JNK is made up of riskier bond choices comprised mostly from assets to U.S. debts with some significant exposure to foreign corporate notes. Those who believe that the corporate bond holdings will make good on their debts buy JNK.
Speculators banking on the possibility that credit ratings in riskier companies will improve bodes well for the market.
Therefore, should the Tinman turn from a rusty, recycled pile of junk into a high tech, fuel injected, triple A rated one, it’s hello Transformer!
Or is that (gulp), hello Terminator?
S&P 500 (SPY) 226.00 pivotal support, then 224.50 and above 228.34 the high.
Russell 2000 (IWM) 135.50-136 pivotal Resistance. 133.59 support. Over 138 better
Dow (DIA) 200 to clear 197.50 should hold.
Nasdaq (QQQ) Netflix should help this to new highs
KRE (Regional Banks) 53.72 now the low to defend as it also held the 50 DMA
SMH (Semiconductors) 72.60 pivotal area. 74.00 resistance to clear.
IYT (Transportation) 164 pivotal area
IBB (Biotechnology) Unconfirmed bearish phase yesterday, today unconfirmed accumulation phase
XRT (Retail) 43.90 pivotal support
IYR (Real Estate) If this breaks a trendline around 75.75 that would not be good and over 78 much better
GLD (Gold Trust) 114.50 support to hold
SLV (Silver) 16.00 support 16.50 resistance
GDX (Gold Miners) 23.00 pivotal area.
USO (US Oil Fund) 12.00 is big resistance and 10.80 big support
TAN (Solar Energy) Not feeling it yet
TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) 120.25-119.50 is the support this rally took off from. If holds has legs, if not, expect to see TBTs over 40.00
UUP (Dollar Bull) 26.17 the 50 DMA
Disclosure: None.