How Much Further Will Oil Drop?

It was a bloodbath for the oil stocks. 

And I'm feeling really good about having closed out my Anadarko Petroleum (APC) swing trade at $75.02 yesterday for a 2.5% profit. The alternative would have been brutal, no doubt. 

But how far can oil continue to fall? 

Today's action looks like some grisly scene out of Dunkirk where planes were just swooping in to destroy anything they could get their cross-hairs on.I actually think there, a near panic situation setting up in the afternoon, as the losses for traders not only worsened, but they accelerated to the downside. 

So what to watch going forward? 

First, keep an eye on the 20-day moving average - $USO seemed like it wanted to hold that level, but if that fails, watch the rising trend-line off of the June 2017 lows. 

Here's the technical analysis on oil:

(Click on image to enlarge)

uso swing trading technical analysis

 

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Moon Kil Woong 1 week ago Contributor's comment

The drop off from the trend line highs could have been expected and it will require a dropping a substantial amount more to hit the trendline low. I think this is not that extraordinary given the same thing has happened before. The issue is, will this pullback continue.