How Low Can Natural Gas Storage Levels Get?

Natural gas prices were relatively stable today, eventually settling up modestly on a day where they traded positive through most of the trading session. 

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natural gas commodity weather

The theme of small trading ranges continued, with just a 3.5-cent trading range again today. This pulled the daily trading range far below what we tend to see this time of year. 

natural gas commodity weather

The natural gas strip settled with relatively similar gains along the strip, though backs rallied into the settle so they ended up leading. In our Afternoon Update we looked at recent intraday spread action as well to determine risk and a market narrative, as we have seen spreads be especially telling as of late. 

natural gas commodity weather

A dominant theme in recent trading has been colder trends through the remainder of March that seem likely to pull storage levels even further into the end of the season. In our Seasonal Trader Report, where we outline our 5-month GWDD forecasts and look at the latest seasonal forecasts, we project our end of draw storage levels for subscribers. These have been falling the past week, as our 4-week withdrawal estimates have increased. 

natural gas commodity weather

Our estimate for the Thursday data print was confirmed by Dominion's (DTI) weekly storage change announced Monday, which lines up well with a sizable withdrawal across the East. 

natural gas commodity weather

The withdrawal at Dominion was the largest since the week ending February 8th. 

natural gas commodity weather

Not only that, but we see strong evidence that the EIA print to be announced next week could show a larger withdrawal than the last (as we expect to see a few more GWDDs in Gas Week 11 than Gas Week 10). 

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natural gas commodity weather

Of course, the natural gas strip has already accounted for some this, as we showed in our strip analysis for clients in our Seasonal Trader Report today. 

natural gas commodity weather

 

Disclaimer: To begin receiving both our technical and fundamental analysis of the natural gas market on a daily basis, and view our various models breaking down weather by natural gas demand ...

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