GoPro (GPRO) has a fantastic set of content on YouTube. Now with 3 million subscribers, the company is clearly a conduit for content. Unfortunately for shareholders, the one key catalyst for a rebound is absent.

GoPro, along with the online community at large, brought in attention for Hero 4. Unfortunately, that interest peaked in July 2015 and fell ever since:

Source: TickerTags

Since then, peak mentions for “Hero 4” fell steadily, with a few spikes along the way. The negative trend for Hero 4 getting mentioned is firmly in place. This is troubling. Holiday gift shoppers will likely not buy a hero wearable camera this year.

GoPro has multiple problems for Hero 4. First, the pricing is far too high. Second, those who bought an older unit will not feel the need to upgrade. The added cost compared to the features added is too high. Another troubling trend is the massive discount for Hero 4 on Black Friday. On November 28, there was a report the device was 25 percent off, or $299 for the Silver-colored unit.

Bottom line

GoPro is probably fairly valued, with downside risks. Bearishness is already very high. Short float is a massive 34 percent. Traders are taking advantage of the analyst consensus being far too high (average price target is $39). Expect discounts for the company’s main products to spur sales. This might help limit the falling revenue, but it will cost the GoPro on profitability.