Here’s Your 5% Correction

Finally, finally, we are getting our 5% correction.

Normally seen three times a year, the S&P 500 (SPY) has not taken a 5% hickey for an incredible 18 months.

The dam finally broke, unleashing a flood of Biblical proportion short covering in the Volatility Index (VIX), (VXX), enough to take the mathematical construct up an incredible 70.52% in 48 hours.

Did I mention that we carried a double long position in volatility going into this melt up?

We also saw one of the sharpest swings ever in my Mad Hedge Market Timing Index, from 66 to 28, in only two days. We are now firmly into “RISK ON” and “BUY” territory, but it may be a little early still.

Of course, you can blame our fearless leader for all of this, who is ratcheting up his war mongering against North Korea at every opportunity.

On Thursday, it was “fire and fury”. On Friday, it was “lock and loaded”. Will tomorrow brings “bombs away”?

As a result, Kim Jong Un’s North Korean polling numbers are hitting all time highs.

The baby-faced leader NEEDS the prospect of imminent war to keep his weary, long suffering people in line, and Trump is giving what he needs in spades.

Which convinces me that in the end, this will all amount to absolutely nothing.

Once the posturing and the sturm und drang is all over, US corporate earnings will return to the forefront as a driver of share prices.

With a global synchronized economic recovery in play, what other conclusion is there?

It all sets up an ideal trading scenario where share prices go from severely overbought, to oversold, to overbought once again.

Yes, we’re all being given a second chance at the brass ring.

Not only will you get a much better entry to buy stocks, you will also be blessed with a golden opportunity to sell short bonds again too.

This may be the LAST chance to sell bonds with the yields in the low 2%’s in our lifetimes, and a one year double top in prices on the charts will make it all the easier.

It all sounds like a perfect formula for making money to me.

I have to tell you that after listening to all of the talking heads expound about Korea, they all have one thing in common: they all know nothing about the “Hermit Kingdom.”

I, on the other hand, have a different perspective, having spent 45 years on and off the ground there, originally as the Asian correspondent for The Economist magazine.

In fact, I once interviewed the president of South Korea, a Mr. Park Chung-hee, only to see him assassinated by his own bodyguard two weeks later.

In the end, I think traders’ and investors’ nerve endings will get calloused from the non-stop war of words.

They’ll simply get bored, say “screw this”, and get back to the important business of making money for their clients, which means going back to buying everything.

On Monday, August 14 there are no important data releases and will probably be the most boring day of the year with an open market.

On Tuesday, August 15 at 8:30 AM EST the Empire State Manufacturing Survey is published. At 10:00 AM we learn the National Association of Home Builders Home Price Index.

On Wednesday, August 16, at 8:30 AM EST we get July Housing Starts.

At 10:30 AM EST the weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report is out, probably with more awful news.

The most important information of the week will be published at 2:00 PM EST, the Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Minutes from three weeks ago. This will be a prelude to the important Jackson Hole meeting of central bankers and economists during August 24-26.

Thursday, August 17 at 8:30 AM we learn the Weekly Jobless Claims.

At 9:15 AM we learn July Industrial Production.

On Friday, August 18 we have August Consumer Sentiment.

Wrapping up the week at 1:00 PM is the Baker-Hughes Rig Count, which has been up for most of the last year, boding ill for oil prices. Last week saw a doubling of year earlier rig numbers, and 18 months of rises.

As for me, I will be unpacking from my last two trips to Seattle and Lake Tahoe, doing laundry, and in general getting ready for the final round of frantic trading going into the end of 2017.

I can’t wait!

Be there, or be square! 

While at Lake Tahoe I stopped by the location of the November 3-4 Mad Hedge/Top Gun Masterminds Conference and took a few pictures below. While some ticket categories are already sold ...

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