Wednesday, December 6, 2017 9:55 AM EDT
The consensus view is the Fed will hike 3-4 times in 2018 and that treasury yields long ago bottomed. Agree? I don't.
US Treasury Yields 1998-Present
The above chart suggests it is far too premature to believe that long-term yields have bottomed.
US Treasury Yields 5-year Duration and Under 1998-Present
Other than zero-bound 3-month treasuries, it is difficult to present a clear technical case that even short-term rates have bottomed.
And given that a huge percentage of the world's bonds trade at negative interest rates, one cannot make a legitimate case that any bond yields have bottomed.
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Disclaimer: The content on Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, including advertisements, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, or to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy. The ideas expressed on this site are solely the opinions of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the opinions of sponsors or firms affiliated with the author(s). The author may or may not have a position in any company or advertiser referenced above. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or advertisement on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.
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