Gold Daily

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Technical Outlook: Gold prices rebounded off a key support zone noted earlier this month with the rally now approaching near-term resistance at the confluence of the monthly open and the upper median-line parallel extending off yearly high at ~1267/70. Note that daily momentum has also continued to struggle below the 60-threshold and IF this rebound is corrective, should cap the near-term rally.

Bottom line: the immediate advance is vulnerable below this threshold and we’ll be on the lookout for a possible exhaustion pullback. Ultimately the trade remains constructive while above 1241 with a breach here targeting more significant resistance into 1278 (breakout level).

• A summary of IG Client Sentimentshows traders are net-long Gold - the ratio stands at +3.2 (76.2% of traders are long)- bearishreading
• Long positions are 2.7% higher than yesterday but 7.2% lower from last week
• Short positions are 1.8% higher than yesterday and a full 40.1% higher from last week
• Despite the fact that sentiment continues to point lower, the marked increase in short exposure highlights the breakout potential here- especially as prices approach key near-term structural resistance. That said, we’ll be on the lookout for near-term exhaustion up here with the immediate long-bias at risk heading into monthly open at 1267/70.

Silver Daily

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Technical Outlook: Silver has already cleared its monthly open with the rally now extending into the 50% retracement of the April decline at 17.36. Note that these divergences (silver taking out its monthly high while gold holds) are often times warning signs of near-term exhaustion. That said, again here the immediate long-bias is at risk while below his threshold but the broader focus remains weighted to the topside while above 16.85. A breach higher targets the 200-day moving average backed closely by confluence resistance into the 61.8% retracement at 17.66.

• A summary of IG Client Sentimentshows traders are net-long Silver- the ratio stands at +8.86 (89.9% of traders are long)- bearish reading
• Long positions are 1.4% lower than yesterday and 9.4% lower from last week
• Short positions are 9.4% lower than yesterday but 0.8% higher from last week
• Retail has been long silver for some time now but it’s worth noting that this recent pullback from extremes in sentiment was accompanied by a strong push higher in price. That said, look for a further reduction in net-long positioning to offer further conviction on a breakout above 17.36.