XAU-USD jumped more than 1.5% on Friday in response to the actual Non-Farm Payrolls data missing expectations in the US. The yellow metal closed last week at $1173.06. The reading for January showed that the US economy only added 151,000 jobs versus the consensus forecast of 190,000 and a lot lower than December’s reading of 262,000. Weak job growth in the US has unnerved investors and benefitted the gold price. Recent worries about global growth have also added to bullish momentum in the yellow metal.

Slowing job growth will reduce the prospects of another interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve in March and the latest employment report showed that the unemployment rate including those who are underemployed and the discouraged who are not working full-time but want to is holding firm at 9.9%, remaining above pre-recession levels. This will be bullish for gold going forward as the market will now expect a lower probability of a rate hike in March, meaning interest-bearing assets will continue to deliver low returns. Hence, people will move their money into gold.

So will next week see a continuation of the bullish trend? If so, call options are suggested at the start of the week as the recent momentum suggests it will close higher by the end of the week. There are several events this week that could help to push gold higher. Firstly, on Wednesday the CB Leading Economic Index for December from China is due as well as the New Loans indicator. Both will give an indication of recent health of the Chinese economy and poor figures will be bullish for XAU-USD. The New Loans are forecast at 1,900 billion Yuan. The previous CB Leading Economic Index reading was 0.6% and gold bulls should look for a lower figure this time.

Also on Wednesday, the fed’s Janet Yellen will deliver a speech (15:00 GMT) where her comments could influence price action in XAU-USD. This is followed by comments from another Federal Open Market Committee member John C. Williams (18:30 GMT). If they take a dovish view and do not provide any indication of the timing of the second rate hike, then this will be interpreted as bullish for gold.

Finally, Friday will see two important events that could have high volatility impacts in XAU-USD. Firstly, Gross Domestic Product growth readings for Eurozone countries (09:00 GMT) could see a trend continuation if the figures are lower than expected. The quarterly growth rate is expected to come in at 0.0% for Q4 2015 versus 0.3% in Q3. Also, if the annual growth in GDP is lower than 1.6% we will see more risk to the upside in XAU-USD. Moreover, this could be compounded further if US retail sales are lower than the forecast of 0.1% on Friday. This data is due at 13:30 GMT.

The chart above shows weekly price action for XAU-USD with fractal levels, the Alligator indicator and the Awesome Oscillator. Firstly, we notice a bullish divergence between momentum and price action, indicating that the current upward movement will continue. Secondly, the Alligator looks to be crossing over and starting to confirm an upward trend. Targets for buyers are shown on the chart at fractal resistances with the yellow rays with a move towards $1307.49 looking likely in the medium-term. A bearish outlook is only validated if there is a move below the most recent buy fractal acting as support at $1046.23.