December is historically a big month for gold on the Comex, and this year looks to be no real exception.

The precious metals have been getting knocked lower in the Dollar crosses by paper traders who look at them as a currency with some perceived equilibrium with respect to the currency per se. 

Put more simply, they are trading gold and silver as emerging market currencies, and running them contra the Dollar which is still the heart of the global financial establishment.

This can run for some time. When I did studies in the past, multi-linear regression analysis across a wide range of variables, I found that this contra-dollar correlation for gold in particular could last for long periods of time.

However, there are other periods in which gold moves in other ways without respect to this negative dollar correlation. 

This caused me to suspect that the real correlation is more complex than a simplistic linear pricing model.

But what the heck, let's just see how long this strong dollar, higher yields on bonds and lower precious metals trade can go. Typically the forex crowd are paper traders using astronomical leverage. And they always tend to 'overshoot' their trends, and suffer sharp correction.

So all that being said, let's watch the charts and see which way we go, from what is clearly a short term oversold situation. It could become moreso. Or not.

In the intermediate to longer term I still believe quite strongly that the market is going to implode from an excess of leverage and a lack of primary assets backing those claims. And it could be quite impressive.

I am also quite concerned about the rise of civil disobedience and protests of the sort we have not seen in the US in many years. I have to admit that I am somewhat relieved that Hillary and her neo-cons have been tossed.

But it is far too early to have much confidence in Donald Trump and his advisors, whomever they may eventually be.  I have completely lost confidence in the wisdom and restraint of the 'ruling elite' and their enablers. And that does not bode well for anyone.  So one takes measures.  Hence alternative currencies.

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