I worry about GDX dropping to around $22. I've been holding a massive hedge (DUST) in order to avoid the possibility of that happening. Some Elliot wave counts see the miners as being in a (2) corrective wave that should see one more big drop.
Holding DUST? That is usually a prescription for pain unless trading it very quickly. The ETF erodes like crazy, whether the miners are bullish or not.
I've been holding it for a couple of weeks as a hedge against my long term mining positions. I'm only holding until there is a more clear sense of direction. My personal guess is that GDX sees the lower $20's before it returns to $31+.
It's tricky because you can enter a hedge and then see circumstances pressure you to hold longer than intended originally. I know because it has happened to me. FWIW, I have a target on HUI to around the SMA 200 and a 190-200 range. Comp on GDX is your 22 to 23.
I can definitely see what you mean, Gary. My plan has been to hold these hedges through mid to late October at the very longest. I'm kind of hoping it will just drop to that $22-23 range relatively soon, so I can drop the hedges and add to longs. Seems like sentiment is still too high on the optimistic side right now.
As long as HUI/GDX stay under the 50 day SMA the target is the MA 200. Be careful if they pop above the MA 50's. But GDX 22-23 looks like a magnet right now.
Thanks for the info, Gary. I follow you on TM and always look forward to reading your blogs. I usually use Elliot waves and Optix sentiment with GDX, but I probably need to start paying more attention to HUI/GDX ratios as well. That $22-23 target should be a gift for gold bulls.
Wow, if it weren't for that massive DUST hedge, I would have been smacked hard this morning.
I worry about GDX dropping to around $22. I've been holding a massive hedge (DUST) in order to avoid the possibility of that happening. Some Elliot wave counts see the miners as being in a (2) corrective wave that should see one more big drop.
Holding DUST? That is usually a prescription for pain unless trading it very quickly. The ETF erodes like crazy, whether the miners are bullish or not.
I've been holding it for a couple of weeks as a hedge against my long term mining positions. I'm only holding until there is a more clear sense of direction. My personal guess is that GDX sees the lower $20's before it returns to $31+.
It's tricky because you can enter a hedge and then see circumstances pressure you to hold longer than intended originally. I know because it has happened to me. FWIW, I have a target on HUI to around the SMA 200 and a 190-200 range. Comp on GDX is your 22 to 23.
I can definitely see what you mean, Gary. My plan has been to hold these hedges through mid to late October at the very longest. I'm kind of hoping it will just drop to that $22-23 range relatively soon, so I can drop the hedges and add to longs. Seems like sentiment is still too high on the optimistic side right now.
As long as HUI/GDX stay under the 50 day SMA the target is the MA 200. Be careful if they pop above the MA 50's. But GDX 22-23 looks like a magnet right now.
Thanks for the info, Gary. I follow you on TM and always look forward to reading your blogs. I usually use Elliot waves and Optix sentiment with GDX, but I probably need to start paying more attention to HUI/GDX ratios as well. That $22-23 target should be a gift for gold bulls.