GDX/GLD Ratio Should Produce A Bullish Divergence

  • SPX Monitoring purposes; Short SPX on 8/30/17 at 2457.59
  • Monitoring purposes Gold: Neutral
  • Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Neutral

The Equity Put/Call ratio (CPCE) closed yesterday at .55. Readings of .55 and less predict market will decline on average of .8% in 3 to five days on average 88% of the time. The bottom window is the “3 day average of the Equity Put/Call ratio” and readings of .60 and below suggest market near a short term high. The 3 day average of the CPCE has more importance because it contains more days. We have a minimum downside target near 2400 on the SPX. Short SPX on 8/30/17 at 2457.59. 

The first McClellan oscillator reading below -200 after a prolong rally in the market suggests market has entered into a correction phase. Over the last two years when the McClellan Oscillator traded below -200 the market correction lasted around two months (give or take a few days). The McClellan Oscillator hit -246 on August 10 and suggests the correction will end around October 10 (give or take a few days). In most cases the market broke below the McClellan oscillator low reading day and suggests 2437.75 on the SPX will at least be broke. However, we do have minimum downside target near 2400 range. Short SPX on 8/30/17 at 2457.59. 

The pattern forming on GDX appears to be a bullish Head and Shoulders bottom where the July low was the Head. A “Sign of Strength” through the Neckline was present and helps confirm the Head and Shoulders pattern. A pull back to the breakout area (Neckline) near 23.25 range is normal before market heads higher. If the 23.25 range is going to be support the GDX/GLD ratio should produce a bullish divergence and something we will be watching for. Today GDX tested its late August low and closed above, where GDX/GLD ratio closed below its late August low Showing GDX/GLD ratio is weaker than GDX and a bearish sign for GDX. For a bullish develop to occur, GDX/GLD ratio should start to outperform GDX and when that occurs a bottom may not be far off. A bullish setup could develop near 23.25 on GDX if GDX/GLD ratio starts to outperform GDX. Still neutral for now.” 

Disclosure: None.

Disclaimer: Signals are provided as general information only and are not investment recommendations. You are responsible for your own investment decisions. Past performance ...

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