Friday Sentiment, Sept. 15

The short-term uptrend is intact. I see very little to indicate weakness in the short-term. However, the longer-term outlook continues to deteriorate.

Sentiment

This week's Investor's Intelligence Sentiment Survey showed the percent of bulls under 50%. From a contrarian point of view, this survey favors higher stock prices.

This skepticism towards the market is probably at least partly responsible for the strong general market performance so far this month.

The chart below shows the AAII survey. The level of bullishness hit a late-August low, but then popped higher recently. This survey indicates that the best opportunity to buy, from a contrarian view, is now past.
 


Here is another look at sentiment using the put/call ratio. Again, the best time to buy has past.
 

 

The Leader List

No changes to the list from yesterday.

Big break out for the semiconductors. You know my view. The market will follow this index up or down. But I am starting to worry about the potential for a sharp reversal.
 


The volume for QQQ is weak. Something to worry about? The volume for XLK looks similar.
 

Outlook

The ECRI index is pointing to weak economic growth in the months ahead.

The long-term outlook is worrisome.
The medium-term trend is up.
The short-term trend is up


 

Disclaimer: I am not a registered investment advisor. My comments above reflect my view of the market, and what I am doing with my accounts. The analysis is not a ...

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