Forex Metrics And Charts - November 2017

The Top 10 of the Ranking and Rating list for the coming month shows the following stronger currencies being well represented for going long: the EUR(4X) followed by the USD(3X) and the CAD(2X). The weaker currencies are the CHF(4X) followed by the NZD(3X) and the AUD(2X).
By diversifying a nice combination can be traded in the coming month like e.g.:

  • EUR/NZD with the USD/CHF
  • EUR/AUD with the CAD/CHF

Ranking and Rating list

Analysis based on TA charts for all the major currency pairs. Good luck to all. No advice, just info. Every month the Forex ranking rating list will be prepared around the change of the month. All the relevant Time Frames will be analyzed and the ATR and Pip value will be set.

For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer-term perspective the last 12 months Currency Classification can be used in support.

There were a lot of classification changes last month. Here below you can see the old classification followed by the most current one:

Old Classification

Strong: USD, NZD, AUD. The preferred range is from 6 to 8.

Neutral: EUR, CAD, CHF. The preferred range is from 3 to 5.

Weak: JPY, GBP. The preferred range is 1 to 2.

New Classification

This classification was updated on 6 November 2017 and is provided here for reference purposes: 

Strong: USD, EUR, CAD. The preferred range is from 6 to 8.

Neutral: AUD, NZD. The preferred range is from 4 to 5.

Weak: JPY, GBP, CHF. The preferred range is 1 to 3.

When comparing the 12 months Currency Classification with the pairs mentioned in the Ranking List above some would then become less interesting. On the other hand, these pairs are at the top of the list partly also because of their volatility. It seems best to take positions for a short period then and take advantage of the high price movements.

With the FxTaTrader Strategy, these pairs are not traded because these would be trades in the 4 Hour chart or in a lower Time Frame. Nevertheless, they may offer good chances for the short term trader.

Currency Score Chart

The Currency Score analysis is one of the parameters used for the Ranking and Rating list which is published also in this article. The Currency Score is my analysis on the 8 major currencies based on the technical analysis charts using the MACD and Ichimoku indicator on 4 Time Frames: the monthly, weekly, daily and 4 hours. The result of the technical analysis is the screenshot here below.

When comparing the 12 months Currency Classification with the recent Currency Score, as provided in the image above, we can determine the deviations. In the article "Forex Strength and Comparison" this is analyzed in more detail.

Chart of the Month

The Chart for this month is the EUR/NZD Daily chart.

Price is clearly in an uptrend and made a high lately at 1,7215. It is now consolidating below that level and around the Kijun-Sen. It may continue to consolidate in the coming period. 

  1. A nice buy opportunity would be around the current level somewhere around the yellow dotted line at nr. 1 and the Kijun-Sen. By preference the candlesticks should show a good pattern that confirms the entry. This could be the Engulfing pattern, Morningstar etc. etc. Check e.g. the following link for more information: Bulkowski's Top 10 Reversal Candlesticks. 
  2. The target should be below the latest recent high at 1,7215 where the yellow dotted line at nr. 2.
  3. The MACD should show strength in the MACD minus Signal, these are the Blue and Red bars. Either the red bars should become shorter or the blue bars larger. The MACD should stay above the zero line.

In case of a stronger pullback with price going far below the yellow dotted support line with the MACD not recovering the set-up is no more valid. A stop-loss should be placed below the lowest yellow dotted support line. Having a Stop Loss below an important recent Top or Bottom seems a good idea. These are levels where Support or Resistance may reside too. In this case, it would be below the bottom of 17 October at 1,6356.

  • This is a pair that fits best in Point 1 of the Comparison Table Guide. For more information read my other Monthly article called the "Forex Strength and Comparison".
  • The EUR is a strong currency and the NZD a Neutral currency. The Currency Score Difference is 7.

The set-up mentioned remains valid as long as the pair remains in the Top 10 of the coming Monthly Ranking and Rating lists and continues to comply with the point of the Comparison Table Guide mentioned above.

Disclaimer: Besides this article I also use the Forex "Ranking, Rating and Score" which is also available once a week on my blog. In the article "Ranking, Rating and Score" ...

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