Non-Farm Payrolls today and taking the risk here and calling my Dollar bullish case before the announcement….as I believe that technically we should expect Dollar to bounce….overall…and not in all pairs….
EUR/USD
First chart. 1.13 is critical trend support.
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4 hour chart shows how price respected the Kumo support and bounced off it. Cloud support is between 1.1360-1.13. Inside it we are neutral. Breaking below it we turn bearish agreeing with the above chart.
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Daily trend line resistance has been reached and already got rejected once. Will we break it or get rejected again. If the rejection comes as I expect….we will also break 1.13 support and move towards 1.10.
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There is no confirmed reversal signal. There are indicators showing overbought and diverging signs. We are at very important resistance levels. I prefer to look for the bearish side of this pair.
GBP/USD
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Right above the cloud support. Double top?A rejection here will bring price back towards the red trend line support. Good risk reward for being short with a stop at the Green trend line highs.
USD/JPY
The only pair where I’m not Dollar bullish. 3 drive pattern in play and bearish divergence signs. Price is trading around the long-term trend line resistance. No clear breakout above it yet. A rejection here will open the way for a move lower.
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NZD/USD
0.7220-0.7240 is important trend reversal support area. If broken we have a new bearish signal.
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For the past 3 days we have a close below the tenkan-sen. Combined with the bearish divergence signs, I expect selling to increase here and push price first towards the kijun-sen at 0.72 and most probably towards the daily Kumo at 0.71.
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USD/CAD
Has broken an important upward sloping channel and trend line support. However I believe we should see a back test of the broken channel towards 1.33-1.34. The RSI indicators once they break the blue trend lines will confirm the upward reversal towards 1.34. Then I would expect a rejection and a nasty leg lower.
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AUD/USD
Boring….trapped inside a long-term triangle pattern.
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