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On Thursday the 17th of August, trading on the euro/dollar closed down. The daily candlestick closed with a range of 127 pips. The euro survived the ECB’s monetary policy meeting accounts. The price first jumped from 1.1663 to 1.1714. During the US session, the bulls managed to get it back up to 1.1754.

The euro strengthened as the dollar fell across the market in response to Dallas Fed president Robert Kaplan’s speech, in which he said that a weaker dollar is good for the economy. Due to low bond yields, one should be wary of future rate hikes. After hitting 1.1754, the pair entered a phase of consolidation.

Day’s news (GMT+3):

• 09:00 Germany: PPI (Jul).
• 11:00 Eurozone: current account (Jun).
• 15:30 Canada: CPI (Jul), CPI core (Jun).
• 17:00 USA: Michigan consumer sentiment index (Aug).
• 17:15 USA: FOMC member Kaplan’s speech.

EURUSD rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView

After a long-legged doji formed on the hourly timeframe, the euro restored to 1.1754. Growth was halted at the 67th degree. Yesterday, after the price ricocheted and trading volume increased, I set a range of 1.1681 – 1.1713 for accumulating long positions. Buyers wasted no time here and the price soon started to rise. Despite this rise, though, these price levels are still relevant for those wishing to purchase euros today.

A complex price model has taken form over the past few days. Predicting the course of the euro has become more difficult. Today, I’m expecting the euro to rise to 1.1771. 1.1713 level will act as a support. The price could fall as far as the 45th degree at 1.17. It would be better if it stayed above 1.1720/25.

The breakout of the trend line on the daily timeframe turned out to be false; the price jumped after the minutes of the ECB’s meeting were published. Now the line needs to undergo a correction towards the low of 1.1663. The Stochastic is in the sell zone, so if the price goes down, we should see an increase in trading volume as buyers try to push back towards 1.1771.