The USD rose to its strongest level in 7 weeks against the JPY (124.57) and to its highest level in 6 years versus the Australian dollar (72.54). Despite the lower than expected GDP growth in Q2 (2.3% vs. 2.5% expected) a September rate hike (first one in 9 years) is on the table and investors are positioning for the move by buying USD.

EURUSD dropped on the back of weaker German data, and news that the IMF will not participate in any new rescue package for Greece without debt restructuring. German unemployment (rose 9.000 instead of 5000 decline expected) also a reason for the EUR weakness. Technically, the possibility of a retest of 1.0820 is now quite likely.

Biggest loser Vs the USD was the NZD which lost 0.75% on a combination of bad housing data, strong USD and a drop in commodity prices. AUDUSD also suffered due to bad housing data and general USD strength. Over the next 24 hours, Australian PPI and New Zealand business confidence numbers are scheduled for release.

GBPUSD looks to be the most resilient currency so far. Next week is important as the BoE, for the first time will release its policy decision, the meeting minutes, the votes and the macroeconomic forecasts simultaneously.
On the data front, it is quite a busy day with German Retail Sales, EU CPI & US Consumer Confidence releases standing out.

Trading quote of the day:

“No profession requires more hard work, intelligence, patience, and mental discipline than successful speculation.” – Robert Rhea

Green lines are resistance, Red lines are support

EURUSD
Pivot: 1.099
Likely scenario: Short positions below 1.099 with targets @ 1.089 & 1.087 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.099 look for further upside with 1.1025 & 1.1085 as targets.
Comment: Even though a continuation of the technical rebound cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

GBPUSD

Pivot: 1.5645
Likely scenario: Short positions below 1.5645 with targets @ 1.556 & 1.5535 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.5645 look for further upside with 1.569 & 1.5735 as targets.
Comment: As long as 1.5645 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.

AUDUSD
Pivot: 0.7325
Likely scenario: Short positions below 0.7325 with targets @ 0.7255 & 0.723 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 0.7325 look for further upside with 0.735 & 0.738 as targets.
Comment: As long as the resistance at 0.7325 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 0.7255 remains high.

USDJPY

Pivot: 123.8
Likely scenario: Long positions above 123.8 with targets @ 124.25 & 124.6 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 123.8 look for further downside with 123.5 & 123.3 as targets.
Comment: Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

USDCAD

Pivot: 1.295
Likely scenario: Long positions above 1.295 with targets @ 1.305 & 1.3095 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.295 look for further downside with 1.291 & 1.286 as targets.
Comment: The pair has broken above a declining trend line and should post further advance.

USDCHF

Pivot: 0.972
Likely scenario: Short positions below 0.972 with targets @ 0.9635 & 0.96 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 0.972 look for further upside with 0.974 & 0.9765 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is badly directed.

GOLD

Pivot: 1095.5
Likely scenario: Short positions below 1095.5 with targets @ 1080.5 & 1077 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1095.5 look for further upside with 1100 & 1106 as targets.
Comment: As long as 1095.5 is resistance, likely decline to 1080.5.

OIL

Pivot: 49.5
Likely scenario: Short positions below 49.5 with targets @ 47.4 & 46.65 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 49.5 look for further upside with 50.5 & 51.4 as targets.
Comment: As long as 49.5 is resistance, likely decline to 47.4.

DAX

Pivot: 11320
Likely scenario: Short positions below 11320 with targets @ 11135 & 11070 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 11320 look for further upside with 11435 & 11550 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed to bearish.